Specific issues could arise in several countries next week.
Indonesia’s gambit
President Joko Widodo continues to argue against both shelter-in-place (or home containment as it is referred to in other Southeast Asian countries) and the quarantining of the populated island of Java from the rest of the archipelago – a move that could backfire politically if the numbers of the diagnosed and fatalities post a sustained and significant increase in the coming weeks. Airlines continue to fly between the country’s islands and much of the discussions are centered around a lockdown of Jakarta and its environs, and even this is subject to varying interpretations. Given how its neighbors such as the Philippines and Malaysia have adopted strict containment measures, Widodo’s government will eventually be measured against their early decisions to curtail movement and business.
Hospitals at capacity
Some of the larger private hospitals in Manila, Philippines are refusing to accept new Covid-19 patients, claiming they are at full capacity. At least two hospitals in Jakarta, Indonesia are also reportedly in a similar situation. The problem does not seem as pronounced in the other countries in the region.
Manila still has some surge capacity in its medium-sized private hospitals and public ones, including some specialty centers. In fact, the hospitals that are now turning away Covid-19 patients are those sought out by the middle and upper classes, which partly reflects that those likely to seek the earliest treatment are these income groups. Should the number of cases increase significantly, however, then even the unutilized capacity in the two cities will be quickly used up, and the quality of care will become an issue as Manila and Jakarta will turn to temporary facilities now being set up.
Food security a growing issue
Shortages have so far been temporary, reflecting the increase in buying rates and logistical challenges created by travel restrictions, and shelves are still being re-stocked. However, quantity restrictions are in place for common products, and these could tighten in the coming days.
Regionally, the rice trade appears set to tighten, which could create risks for the Philippines, the world’s largest importer; having undergone a rice crisis two years ago, its consumers could get skittish on speculation of another shortage. Vietnam suspended signing new rice contracts until this weekend, and it could reduce exports to build up its domestic supply. Both it and Thailand suffered from a drought earlier this year, which has already caused Thai rice prices to reach six-year highs. Other countries in the region could increase imports to assure their citizens of ample stocks. In Thailand, prices of eggs are reportedly 40% higher than last year, and the government has banned their export.
Local governments becoming more assertive
Wanting to insulate themselves from outbreaks that are still largely concentrated in capitals or big cities, local governments are implementing more rules to protect their constituents, either from the spread of the virus or economic uncertainties. This could lead to distracting conflicts with central governments or, worse, exacerbate logistical problems. For instance, in Indonesia, the Papua province has stopped sea and air passenger transport into the island, which Jakarta has denounced as illegal. In Manila, cities and provinces are implementing uncoordinated rules that are slowing the transport of raw or intermediate materials, as well as some agricultural produce. Last weekend, President Rodrigo Duterte went on national TV to emphasize to local officials the need to follow the rules being set by Manila.
