US and UK: The Comeback Kids
The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correct… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend
In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely move… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?
This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Excha… Become a member to read the rest of this article
US Dollar – Calm before the storm?
The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift ou… Become a member to read the rest of […]
The Dollar Depreciation Is Just Starting
fd8136_5781f5152d214817aec3b558443c51f0 … Become a member to read the rest of this article