De-dollarization | Threads vs Twitter | Inflation-yields
Our quick examination of Meta’s new Threads social platform against Twitter. Paul Krugman on de-dollarization.
JPM on FX/rates | STIs | Wilson psychodrama
JP Morgan analysts quantify the expected impact of the backlog of US Treasury and T-Bill issuance on markets. The maths and Game Theory behind the UK’s rising cases of sexual transmitted infections.
De-dollarization | Changing nexus in commodity prices?
A recent BIS paper looks at the change in correlation between commodity prices and the US dollar. We evaluate whether this shift in paradigm is temporary or permanent.
(2) De-dollarization | Swiss Banking | Block (SQ) shorts
Hindenburg’s flimsy short thesis.
Big Bear capitulates | US rates
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson finally capitulates on bearish S&P 500 call
Have hawks finally lost altitude?
Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatility… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me […]
Tantrum “lite” won’t help US Dollar
US financial markets have had to contend with three “hawkish surprises” so far this month and on each occasion price action has been broadly the same. Initially the Dollar rallied, the S&P 500 sold off and US Treasury yields rose but these (modest) moves were very quickly r… Become a member to read the […]
US markets playing along to Fed tune…for now
Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments ten days ago were merely a temporary distraction. Perhaps more surprisingly, at first glance, the release on Wednesday of a much larger-than-expected increase in US CPI-inflation in April has not had much “sticking power”. Core CPI-… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX intervention
Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion. We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,… Become a member to read the rest of this article
EM currencies: Central bank friends and foes
The Fed updated “dot-chart” of all FOMC members’ expectations of the appropriate policy rate points to only an incrementally less dovish stance. Based on a weighted average FOMC members still only expect one 25bp hike by end-2023, according to our estimates. Fed seems eager to c… Become a member to read the rest of […]