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Key points:
With the Holyrood Elections on 4th May 2021 less than a month away, we will be increasing our (private) smartphone polling efforts as we draw closer to the date. The recent launch of the Alba Party by the former (SNP) First Minister, Alex Salmond, so close to the election date has altered the polling arithmetics and increased uncertainty.… Read the rest
In the early hours of 3 November, the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) declared President Alassane Ouattara the winner of the 31 October presidential election, with 94.3% of votes cast, amid an official turnout of 53.9%. However, the proclamation of results was proceeded by the opposition’s announcement to form a counter-government on the evening of 2 November.… Read the rest
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table ( click below on ‘View PDF’) summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 15 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed.… Read the rest
The ruling center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) achieved a convincing victory in the 5 July general election and is expected to govern alone, relying on the support of national minority MPs and the informal backing from smaller parties. The strengthened HDZ mandate and the fragmentation of the opposition bode well for the stability of the government, which will continue to focus on reviving the country’s tourism-dependent economy.… Read the rest
● The 10 May presidential election has not been canceled, but no voting will take place on the scheduled date.
● This should lead to a presidential poll entirely held by postal ballot in the coming few months, although the process and timeline are unclear.… Read the rest
Yesterday, 6 April, the lower house of parliament (Sejm) passed electoral code changes introducing universal postal vote in the May presidential election and allowing the speaker of the Sejm to postpone the date of the poll until 17 May. The legislation also introduces up to three-year prison sentences for stealing or forging the electoral ballots.… Read the rest
The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party will try to keep the May presidential elections on schedule, but the spreading of Covid-19 will likely force the Polish authorities to postpone the vote at least until the autumn. Rescheduling the poll might endanger the ruling party’s position in the medium term.… Read the rest
● On 15 April, South Koreans will vote in quadrennial elections for the National Assembly, the unicameral legislature.
● President Moon Jae-in’s deft leadership in response to the Covid-19 outbreak has boosted his Democratic Party of Korea (DPK)’s chances of retaining its plurality, but probably not an outright majority.… Read the rest
● Former PM-in-waiting Anwar Ibrahim appears boxed in, even though he has the largest number of MPs on his side.
● Interim Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad appears to have miscalculated his leverage.
● Muhyiddin Yassin, president of former government coalition partner Bersatu, is emerging as the favorite.… Read the rest