report September 28, 2021 IRAN: Iran takes a hard line at the UN The odds of a breakdown in nuclear negotiations with Iran have increased considerably. Iranian government statements in New York last week stressed Iran's efforts to de-emphasize the nuclear talks and "diversify" its global diplomatic agenda. At the UN General... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report September 10, 2021 IRAN: US-Iran ties enter new period of brinkmanship Iran and the US seem determined to demonstrate to each other they are not desperate for a nuclear weapons agreement. Iran may seek to hedge the destabilizing effects of its nuclear actions by lowering tensions with regional neighbors. The... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report August 17, 2021 AFGHANISTAN: China and Russia look for gains, but terrorism a rising worry China and Russia will build on the disorderly US withdrawal from Afghanistan to strike their own relationship with the new regime, protect their respective regional interests, and undermine US global influence. The return of the Taliban to power is... By Andrius Tursa, Gabriel Wildau, Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report August 5, 2021 IRAN: Raisi inaugurated amid increased concerns about Iran Ebrahim Raisi was inaugurated as Iran's president yesterday. Iran is already repositioning itself as a less pliable power in hopes of eliciting a sense of urgency to meet Iranian demands. Recent, aggressive behavior may be part of a recalibration... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report June 14, 2021 IRAN: Presidential elections unlikely to surprise The Iranian government is trying to make the 18 June presidential election as anti-climactic as possible, removing every possible stumbling block to the rise of Ebrahim Raisi. The conventional wisdom is increasingly converging on a nuclear deal being struck... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report May 17, 2021 ISRAEL: Hamas will not hurt the economy much, but domestic challenges rising Hamas rockets will have negligible effect on Israel’s economy this year. A sustained political crisis and increasing polarization between Israeli Jews and Arabs is a bigger threat. Israel seems destined for a new election, which is unlikely to be... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report April 26, 2021 MENA: The two faces of Covid-19 in the region Compared to predictions of a year ago, the Middle East is in very good shape. However, beneath a facade of near-normalcy is a troubling fact: the disparity between the countries that have done best in the face of COVID-19... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report April 19, 2021 IRAN/US: Fallout from Natanz attack is more negotiations The April 11 attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear site was unusual in that Israel was fairly clear about its responsibility. Iran’s response to the attack, advertising its determination to create highly enriched uranium, represents a commitment to the negotiating... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report April 5, 2021 EGYPT: Ever Given incident highlights Egypt’s vulnerabilities Ever Given ship accident in the Suez Canal highlights Egypt’s mixed economic picture. Covid-19 effects will continue to cloud economic growth prospects. The grounding of the Ever Given fixed the world’s attention on Egypt for more than a week... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report March 17, 2021 ISRAEL: Netanyahu in another toss-up election Israeli politics continue to revolve around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose center-right politics have move rightward with Israeli sentiment. The election’s outcome will depend on which small parties make it over the electoral threshold for inclusion in parliament, and... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report March 3, 2021 MENA: Saudi-US relations under the spotlight The US intelligence community assessment on the Khashoggi assassination is not as damaging as feared. Biden’s strategy is not to downgrade the relationship, but instead to make it conditions-based. Congressional pressure is likely to grow to punish those involved... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report February 22, 2021 IRAN: Resumed Iran Diplomacy Will Provide No Easy Path Iran is likely to restrict UN inspectors’ access to nuclear sites on 23 February, following the expiration of a deadline the Iranian parliament imposed on European countries to provide sanctions relief. Iran’s hostile actions, including the attack last on... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report February 3, 2021 EGYPT: Continuing to Cruise in Choppy Waters Egypt’s economy continues to outpace the rest of the Middle East, despite the effects of COVID-19 on tourism and shipping. The state remains the key driver of the economy, focused on major, visible projects. Egypt’s economy continues to defy... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report January 26, 2021 MENA: After 10 years, Arab Spring re-run unlikely The Arab Spring, now ten years on, generally had a greater positive impact in Arab countries that weren’t touched by protests than those that were. Middle- and low-income Arab states have been unable to make large strides addressing youth... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report November 16, 2020 MIDDLE EAST: Biden will not turn on US partners in the region Biden will remain fundamentally sympathetic to Israel, building on his long record as a friend. Saudi Arabia will need to show value to new administration while quietly hedging against a more distant relationship. UAE will hone its image as... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report September 21, 2020 LEBANON: Still stuck Lebanon’s governance crisis has continued, driven by traditional sectarian parties’ determination to retain control. The French-led effort to guide Lebanon’s politics toward reform remains the principal external driver of events, but internal dynamics continue to dominate. Lebane... Become... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report August 15, 2020 UAE/ISRAEL: Not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning This week’s UAE-Israeli rapprochement creates more uncertainties than have been publicly acknowledged. It quickly stabilizes the Israeli government, while creating significant risks and opportunities for the UAE. The agreement that was announced with great fanfare is somewhat ... ... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
