report October 21, 2021 BRAZIL: Pandemic report less harmful than the economy for Bolsonaro The 1,178-page report presented on 20 October by the rapporteur of the Senate inquiry (CPI) into the pandemic, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL), is unprecedented. Indictments were requested for more than 65 people in relation to 12 crimes. At the top of the indictment list is President Jair Bolsonaro, followed by both his current and previous health ministers – Marcelo Queiroga... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report October 20, 2021 LATAM: Pandemic status and outlook Covid-19 caseloads have been dropping across Latin America and the Caribbean in recent weeks. During October, South America has accounted for under 6% of new global daily cases versus 35-40% in June. The improving picture is encouraging but there are several challenges facing the region in the weeks and months ahead. Progress Vaccine rollout : Stuttering early campaigns and... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 19, 2021 MEXICO: Political considerations behind electricity reform The political noise surrounding President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)'s electricity sector reforms persists even if little significant movement has occurred since it was unveiled on 1 October. The reform, which would restore the state-run CFE electricity utility to a de facto monopoly position, requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers to advance. The coalition led by the National Regeneration... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 19, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Chile marks two years since the outbreak of protests just as the constituent assembly born out of that unrest starts to debate the content of a new constitution. In Peru, a new stage of Pedro Castillo's presidency opens up as his party appears to be submitting to new realities. In Brazil, this week will be important for... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Gridlock likely and governability crisis possible after mid-terms The governing Front for All (FdT) coalition will struggle to avoid a damaging defeat in November's partial mid-term elections. The government is hoping to limit its losses with unabashed clientelism, but FdT power struggles and highly problematic economic conditions militate against a poll recovery. The government is likely to limp to 2023 amid congressional gridlock and will remain hostage... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 12, 2021 CHILE: Presidential race favors leftist Boric but voter indecision still high A second candidates' debate took place last night, 11 October, just under six weeks from the first round of the presidential election on 21 November, and with the leftist Gabriel Boric enjoying a consistent poll lead, albeit with voter indecision still high. The timing of the debate was important in view of recent poll shifts and in the wake... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 11, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Chile‘s President Sebastian Pinera faces a bumpy ride as he seeks to defend himself from allegations arising from the “Pandora Papers” leak; at the same time, another presidential debate takes place later today. In Mexico, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will be making the case for his highly controversial electricity sector reform proposals. Any clarity about... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 8, 2021 BRAZIL: Tax reform surfaces amid legislative profligacy President Jair Bolsonaro has been uncommonly discreet since his official apology to other branches of government for his frequent attacks against them two days after the pro-government protests on Independence Day, 7 September. Congress was already distancing itself from the government when the president was incendiary but has found yet more space to lead its own agenda with him... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report October 7, 2021 PERU: Cliff edge avoided, but governability and moderation may still be elusive President Pedro Castillo made seven changes to his cabinet yesterday, 6 October. The reshuffle promotes more moderate leftists largely at the expense of ministers who answer to the Peru Libre (PL) party boss Vladimir Cerron. The highly controversial Prime Minister (PCM) Guido Bellido is replaced by the more moderate Mirtha Vasquez, who was congressional president in the period following... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 5, 2021 CHILE: Presidential race under shadow of constitutional debate While the recent leak of financial records (“Pandora Papers”) continues to affect President Sebastian Pinera – and by extension the center-right presidential candidate Sebastian Sichel – Chile's constitutional debate has deeper implications. Holding presidential and legislative elections while the constituent assembly is sitting was always going to be challenging. Voters will be determining who will govern for the next... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 4, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Mexico‘s electricity sector counter-reforms are in the legislature, where they could muffle recent speculation about the battle to eventually succeed President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Political tensions in Peru are rising. In Ecuador, talks between the government and the powerful indigenous movement are taking place. In Chile, the pension withdrawal debate moves to the Senate this... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 30, 2021 PERU: Contradictions and confusion Prime Minister Guido Bellido's threat to nationalize the consortium that operates the Camisea natural gas field unless it agrees to pay higher taxes is unsettling – though not for what might seem the most obvious reasons. Camisea is a consortium whose members include Pluspetrol (Argentina), Hunt Oil (US), and Repsol (Spain), among others. Some form of contract renegotiation for... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 28, 2021 ECUADOR: Unstoppable force (Lasso) meets immovable object (National Assembly) President Guillermo Lasso's so-called “mega-bill” of reforms faces a complex path in the National Assembly (AN). The government has been talking openly about its “plan B” for a public referendum if/when the reforms reach a dead end in the legislature. Lasso's popularity could see him through any referendum but sustaining his political momentum beyond would become increasingly difficult. President... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 27, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Peru‘s government is in another muddle of its own making – this time over a threat to nationalize natural gas resources – while Congress will keep the Pedro Castillo administration on the backfoot. In Mexico, energy policy in the downstream sector returns to the political spotlight, while monetary policy will be under renewed focus. Brazil is gearing... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 24, 2021 BRAZIL: Congress to lead on policy as President focuses on narratives President Jair Bolsonaro's controversial speech at the UN shows his continued need to focus on narrative-building as opposed to actual governing. Congress has occupied the vacuum, though significant differences of approach prevail between House and Senate. Budget challenges are forcing the government and Congress to seek common solutions. President Jair Bolsonaro's 21 September speech at the UN General Assembly... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report September 23, 2021 CHILE: Debate unlikely to change Boric versus Sichel dynamic The first televised candidates' debate took place yesterday, 22 September, ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 21 November. Below we examine the key takeaways: The polls going into last night's debate had the leftist Gabriel Boric in first place; Boric is the candidate for the Apruebo Dignidad coalition made up of the Broad Front (FA)... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 20, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Argentina has a new cabinet after Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) flexed her political muscles in the wake of the 12 September mid-term primaries. In Brazil, a report from the Senate inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic will be released. Chile sees its first presidential debate two months ahead of the first-round vote, while the constituent... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 17, 2021 ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday's primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cumbersome muddle-through path appears most likely. Events of the last 24 hours increase the likelihood of an opposition victory in... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 13, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Argentina‘s governing coalition is reeling from a heavy setback in yesterday's obligatory primary voting which will be difficult to reverse in November's mid-terms. Ecuador will see union-led protests against government reform proposals. This week also offers an opportunity to see Peru‘s President Pedro Castillo in action on the international stage for the first time; back at home,... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Mid-term primary takeaways The governing Front for All (FdT) suffered a major setback in the party primaries held yesterday ahead of the partial mid-term legislative elections scheduled for 14 November – as we previously anticipated. Since voting is obligatory, the primaries assume the form of a large-scale opinion poll. The main takeaways are as follows: The FdT lost by nine points nationally... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 9, 2021 BRAZIL: Bolsonaro weaker after protests but early exit threats not in sight President Jair Bolsonaro's political situation is worse after the Independence Day (7 September) protests that he encouraged. The crowds were impressive in both Brasilia and Sao Paulo, the two cities where he chose to deliver speeches. Over the weekend preceding the events, the president went on social media to speak of peace and harmony – in a clear attempt... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report September 9, 2021 VENEZUELA: Positive early steps but mountain still to climb in political talks Regime and opposition negotiators announced two partial agreements at the end of three days of talks that culminated on 6 September. The two sides have agreed to build mechanisms to facilitate food aid and health assistance for the local population and announced they share positions in the long-running territorial dispute over the Essequibo region of Guyana. Another round of... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 8, 2021 MEXICO: Prospects for AMLO’s three constitutional reform priorities Three constitutional reforms that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) wants to advance over the next 18 months face an uphill struggle. The congressional landscape is more complex following the June mid-terms, though AMLO is likely to probe the main opposition alliance for any weaknesses he can exploit. AMLO is already looking to smooth the succession path, which involves... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 7, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, in Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro is aiming for a show of force in a day of protests. Argentina holds its primaries ahead of November's mid-terms. In Colombia, the new tax reform – the third such initiative under President Ivan Duque – goes to congressional votes this week. Ecuador is also gearing up for a difficult tax reform... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 2, 2021 BRAZIL: Day of economic reckoning for Bolsonaro President Jair Bolsonaro has resorted to combative discourse from the outset of his government. The strategy has always been to attack first and explain later, never to recognize mistakes, and at best deny what was said. Even when he has struck deals with other branches of government, he never refrains from confrontation to preserve die-hard positions dating back to... By Mario Marconini Teneo
