report October 25, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan’s pyrrhic victory? Even though the meeting of the Turkish cabinet is still ongoing (a press conference is expected at around 7pm local time), it seems that President Tayyip Erdogan will not follow through on his previous threat to declare ten Western... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 24, 2021 TURKEY: Expulsion of ten ambassadors not a given despite Erdogan’s threat President Tayyip Erdogan stated on 23 October that he ordered to declare "persona non grata" the ambassadors of ten Western allies for seeking philanthropist Osman Kavala's release from prison. Erdogan made these remarks during a rally in the western... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 21, 2021 CEE: Economic and political challenges resurface with pandemic resurgence Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling to cope with the resurging pandemic amid low vaccination rates and widespread prevalence of the Delta strain. The inevitable return of tough restrictions will hamper economic recovery and could delay... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 21, 2021 GERMANY: Weidmann’s resignation and the euro dilemma of the political right Regardless of who gets to succeed Jens Weidmann as Bundesbank president, it is important to recall that even conservative policymakers like him have not stopped the ECB's unconventional approach. In contrast with previous resignations, Weidmann did not step down... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 21, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 19, 2021 GERMANY: More substance, less lingo is needed as coalition talks begin The center-right Liberals (FDP) were the last party to agree to formal coalition talks on 18 October, but it is not yet clear on which exact date these will begin this week. The conclusions of the exploratory talks point... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 19, 2021 HUNGARY: Primaries bolster opposition, but challenges remain Primaries gave the opposition bloc an early boost ahead of the general election scheduled for spring 2022. The newly elected opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay poses a formidable challenge to incumbent Viktor Orban. Both opposition and the ruling Fidesz still... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 14, 2021 ITALY: Draghi’s “Black Friday”? All workers will be required to show a Covid-19 health pass from 15 October, one of the world's toughest anti-Covid regimes that has already sparked riots and which may cause chaos in the days ahead. Around 2.2-2.5 million of... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 14, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 14, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Bulgaria's National Recovery and Resilience Plan is ready for submission to the European Commission. In the Czech Republic, the newly elected Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to hold its first sitting on 8 November. On 16 October, Hungary's opposition... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 12, 2021 UK/EU: Brexit tensions return – Next steps Following remarks by UK Minister of State Lord Frost in Lisbon today, EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will on 13 October unveil proposals to simplify the operation of the Northern Ireland protocol. The EU will offer that items of cultural... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 12, 2021 POLAND: Implications of the Constitutional Tribunal ruling The deepening rule of law dispute between Warsaw and Brussels heightens the risk of further restrictions on Poland's access to EU funds. Reduced EU funding and rising concerns about Poland's future membership in the EU could erode voter support... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 11, 2021 UK: After conference season, the policy work begins It is important not to read too much into the annual gatherings of the party faithful. However, the Conservative conference reflected that PM Boris Johnson is very much in control of his party. No serious cabinet or backbench rebellions... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 11, 2021 RUSSIA/UKRAINE: US-German deal on Nord Stream 2 gives Moscow leverage over Kyiv The US-German agreement allowing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline represents a political victory for Moscow. Nord Stream 2 is expected to substantially lower Russian gas shipments through Ukraine after 2024 thereby limiting Kyiv's revenue from transit... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 10, 2021 CZECH REPUBLIC: Opposition wins but government formation depends on Zeman The three-party center-right coalition Together achieved an unexpected victory in the 8-9 October elections for the lower chamber of parliament and is best- positioned to form the next government. However, the timing and process of government formation depends on... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 8, 2021 GERMANY: “Traffic light” perspectives for European and fiscal issues The preparatory talks of recent days have led to the launch of exploratory negotiations for a "traffic light" coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) with the Greens and the center-right Liberals (FDP). These are still not detailed coalition talks;... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 7, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 6, 2021 ITALY: A noisier political backdrop but Draghi won’t lose much sleep over it The main takeaway from the 3-4 October local elections is that the outcome will not cause any major problem to Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government. The former ECB chairman, who enjoys approval ratings close to 70%, remains unchallenged. Draghi's... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 6, 2021 SPAIN: Ruling coalition stronger than it looks As expected, the Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and far-left Unidas Podemos reached an agreement on the draft 2022 budget on 5 October, which the government is expected to approve and send to the Congress of Deputies (lower chamber) in... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report October 4, 2021 CZECH REPUBLIC: ANO set to win, but government formation could get complicated The ruling Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) is set to win the elections to the Chamber of Deputies and get a first chance at forming the next cabinet. ANO's prospects of securing a majority in parliament depend largely on... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 3, 2021 ITALY: Local elections – key issues In Prime Minister Mario Draghi's Italy, administrative elections will have no meaningful impact on the government. The lack of political leaders means that Draghi remains unchallenged. The elections will confirm that League's Matteo Salvini risks becoming a spent political... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 30, 2021 TURKEY: Parliament set for a busy Q4 as Erdogan looks ahead to next elections A reform of the electoral system, a draconian social media law and the 2022 budget will be the main priorities for Turkey's parliament after its summer recess. While noise about a new constitution is likely to re-emerge in the... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 30, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 30, 2021 FRANCE: The right fights, Macron benefits? The members of the center-right party The Republicans (LR) agreed on 25 September that their presidential candidate would be elected in an internal ballot on 4 December. While the decision could help the candidacy of former Labor Minister Xavier... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report September 30, 2021 RUSSIA/EUROPE: Gas exports curbed by commercial and geopolitical considerations Record-high natural gas prices and fears of looming shortages in Europe are raising questions about Russia's reluctance to increase its gas shipments. However, Gazprom's strategy is consistent with the company's established preference for long-term supply contracts over spot sup...... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
