report October 21, 2021 CHINA: Power shortages lead to durable market reforms Severe power rationing has led to significant long-term reforms to China's electricity pricing system that go beyond emergency stop-gap measures. Under the new system, coal-powered generators can pass on higher coal prices to electricity users; the changes also force... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 21, 2021 Sri Lanka: Facing an economic crisis – but IMF is not an option (for now) Low revenue from tourism, plummeting foreign remittances and legacy debts from the sovereign bond market are pushing Sri Lanka in the general direction of default This is exacerbated by errors in the island's tea-production strategy However, help from multilateral... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report October 21, 2021 MYANMAR: What ASEAN’s exclusion of the junta means In an uncharacteristic rebuke, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week barred coup and junta leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing -- chair of the junta's State Administration Council (SAC) and the "interim prime minister" -- from attending... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 20, 2021 JAPAN: TINA, turnout, and structural advantages make LDP the best electoral bet Mistrust of the opposition, down-trending turnouts, and structural advantages in the electoral system all help make the LDP a safe bet in the 31 October general election. Opposition parties' hopes depend on improved turnout and a coordination pact, but... By James Brady Teneo
report October 19, 2021 SOUTH KOREA: On regional foreign policy, Seoul approaches a fork in the road Kim Jong-un's recent overtures are designed to drive wedges between South Korea and the US and between progressives and conservatives domestically; they speak to the real choice emerging in terms of Seoul's regional foreign policy ahead of the March... By Victor Cha Teneo
report October 19, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Sara Duterte may really be out of the running The probability that Sara Duterte may not run for the presidency has increased. The nominal beneficiary is Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the son of the former autocrat, who may emerge as the front-runner in a Duterte-less race. Polling this early... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 19, 2021 CHINA: ‘Common prosperity’ is more reform than revolution A newly published speech by President Xi Jinping and a pilot project in Zhejiang province are important signals about the Communist Party's "common prosperity" agenda to address social inequality. These signals suggest a long-term program of tighter regulation, improved... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 14, 2021 JAPAN: Spend-and-defend manifesto continues LDP’s buy now, pay later approach The ruling LDP's Lower House election manifesto contains new policy emphases in several areas including the economy, health crisis response, and energy, but omits key proposals in each area. On foreign policy, there are notable developments relating to Taiwan,... By James Brady Teneo
report October 14, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Reopening to tourists, plus some vaccine hesitancy Across much of the region, countries are accelerating their plans to reopen their economies to foreign tourists. Several factors -- but primarily rising rates of vaccination and pressure from business groups and small and medium enterprises -- are raising... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 13, 2021 CHINA: “Negative list” may force private capital to divest from news media China's state planning agency updated its Market Entry Negative List with what appear to be tighter restrictions on private investment in news media and internet livestreaming. The Negative List is not new policy, but annual changes to the list... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 8, 2021 JAPAN: Kishida, Abe, and the quid pro quo The first set of public opinion polls show only lukewarm support for new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration, and a large majority does not favor his economic plans. Even so, the Hallowe'en Lower House election won't turn into a... By James Brady Teneo
report October 7, 2021 CHINA/TAIWAN/US: PLA flyovers are about deterrence not invasion China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) set three consecutive daily records for aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on 2-4 October. The PLA incursions continue a long-term trend of increasing naval and air force activity near Taiwan... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 6, 2021 PHILIPPINES: As Marcos Jr. enters the race, the wait for Duterte continues The 2022 picture will remain incomplete until Sara Duterte clarifies her intentions. The outlook for the presidential contest has changed since our initial assessments in the spring -- a wide open race is now a greater possibility, especially if... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 5, 2021 US/CHINA: Biden’s new China trade strategy sidesteps tough questions US Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai announced that the Biden administration will relaunch the exclusion process for Trump-era trade war tariffs and restart trade talks with Beijing. But Tai did not commit to any rollback of Trump-era tariffs, nor... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 4, 2021 JAPAN: New PM Kishida calls 31 October election New Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called the Lower House election for 31 October, in a move designed to capitalize on his initial poll bounce and the current low Covid-19 case numbers. The new cabinet sees both continuity and... By James Brady Teneo
report October 1, 2021 INDONESIA: Widodo wins parliamentary approval for tax changes Parliament's Commission XI on Finance this week approved substantial changes to the country's tax laws, with formal passage of the Bill on Harmonizing Tax Regulations expected next week. The most important part of the legislation in the near term... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 1, 2021 CHINA: Power shortages reflect price controls, “campaign-style” climate efforts The combination of surging coal prices and inflexible, government-controlled electricity prices has imposed financial losses on coal-fired power plants, prompting them to cut production. Political pressure on provincial governments to meet ambitious targets on cutting carbon emi... Become... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 1, 2021 INDIA: Foreign e-retailing companies face legal pushback Charges that Amazon might have bribed officials have prompted demands that the government probes the company's operations in India. The challenges posed by e-commerce to the survival of small stores are viewed sympathetically by the government. The urge to... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report September 30, 2021 ASIA: What the Quad’s evolution means for Asia The evolution of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue into new areas of cooperation at this week's summit has important implications for the delicate balance of political and economic relations across Asia. For Japan, the Quad represents an important component in... By Aditi Phadnis, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo Teneo
report September 30, 2021 PHILIPPINES: The circus is coming to town Sara Duterte is still the nominal front-runner for the presidency, although she disavows any intent to seek the office. Her recent ratings decline may be a cause of worry for her campaign and force her to disclose her real... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 30, 2021 JAPAN: Next PM Kishida set to tweak but continue with the Abe/Suga framework Fumio Kishida has won the LDP leadership race, leveraging Diet members' support to edge out grassroots favorite Taro Kono in both rounds of the vote. Known as a moderate but mutable right-winger, Kishida is set to govern with a... By James Brady Teneo
report September 29, 2021 US/CANADA/CHINA: Meng Wanzhou release can’t undo 3 years of built-up hostility In what amounted to a hostage swap, Canada released Huawei's Meng Wanzhou from house arrest, and Chinese authorities deported two Canadian expatriates jailed for espionage. Despite the resolution, the net effect of the three-year ordeal has been to harden... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 27, 2021 SOUTH KOREA: Front-runners emerge in party primaries ahead of presidential race With the presidential primary season underway, Gyeonggi province governor Lee Jae-myung leads former prime minister Lee Nak-yeon in the race to be the ruling Democratic Party (DP)'s candidate. For the opposition People Power Party (PPP), former prosecutor-general Yoon Seok-youl... By James Brady, Teneo, Victor Cha Teneo
report September 24, 2021 CHINA: Evergrande fallout will test Beijing’s resolve to end property addiction Impending debt defaults by Evergrande are not China's "Lehman moment"; regulators have the capability to control systemic risk. The more important question is whether Evergrande's collapse will force policymakers to reverse the tightening measures designed to break the economy's...... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 24, 2021 THAILAND: Attempting a path toward tourism normalcy, but it’s complicated Thailand will push forward with a broader reopening of its tourism sector in the fourth quarter due to the relatively positive experience in Phuket of foreigners not being a major source of transmission. The Phuket and Samui sandbox schemes... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
