JAPAN: Suga balances public health and economy as third wave swells
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EUROPE: CEE PULSE
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Our Debut Survey Results
Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers. The results presented below are raw data and should not be interpreted as financial advice. 1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what […]
A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations
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US Election Forecast
We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes (see below) Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver’s (FiveThirtyEight) model? This may be a bit like asking why England trade at high betting odds to win the (soccer) World Cup, or the Yankees in the World […]
US Election Polls: Data Blind Spots
As requested by several members, we have updated our previous stats report of US Election polls. We highlight some potential statistical pitfalls of the (aggregate) polls with states such as Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Indiana at most risk of surprise outcome. Modeling and methods of panel construction are beyond the scope of discussion in this brief report. The figure below shows the states we […]
Comment on Mobility Data
Weekly Political Compass In recent weeks some market economists have drawn attention to the recent down ticks in mobility data as an early indicator of a slow down in economic activity within Europe. Whilst this may be valid, we believe the mobility evidenced arguments are not entirely formed on solid basis. Here is why… The most commonly used mobility datasets are those released […]
Christine Lagarde, ECB Head
Her speech centred on the structural changes ahead for Europe which she divides into 2 categories: ‘Good ones’ and ‘bad ones’. As an optimist she likes to focus on the positives: Only 10% of those surveyed have an urge to go back to the office. A new form of more flexible work will emerge. Growth in E-commerce […]
PHILIPPINES: Duterte Posts 91% Approval Ratings – Not a Misprint
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Trump And Fox New Polls
Behind the Fox News Polls Yesterday, President Trump tweeted out against a recent poll released by Fox News which shows him trailing in battleground states against his 2020 presidential contender Joe Biden. Fortunately, on 4th August 2020 we had the pleasure of hosting Chris Anderson and Matthew Shelter of Beacon Research – the firm that produces the […]