Category: Others

BioNTech Founders Türeci and Şahin on the Battle against COVID-19

Speevr Moderator January 7, 2021

Original Article in DER SPIEGEL

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“To See People Finally Benefitting from Our Work Is Really Moving”

In a DER SPIEGEL interview, BioNTech founders Özlem Türeci and Uğur Şahin discuss the development of the world’s first COVID-19 vaccine, what that success means to them and where they intend to go from here.… Read the rest

Market Survey Results

Bruno Costanzo November 20, 2020

SURVEY RESULTS: 116 anonymous respondents predominantly financial market professionals.

1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate for the level in 6 months time?”

Market Survey Results 1

2) “If Global GDP in 2021 is around 5-6% as most economists project, what will be the likely impact on US 10 years bond yields?… Read the rest

Christine Lagarde, ECB Head

Bruno Costanzo October 12, 2020

Her speech centred on the structural changes ahead for Europe which she divides into 2 categories: ‘Good ones’ and ‘bad ones’. As an optimist she likes to focus on the positives:

  • Only 10% of those surveyed have an urge to go back to the office.
… Read the rest

Trump And Fox New Polls

Bruno Costanzo September 4, 2020

Behind the Fox News Polls

Yesterday, President Trump tweeted out against a recent poll released by Fox News which shows him trailing in battleground states against his 2020 presidential contender Joe Biden.… Read the rest

A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations

Bruno Costanzo November 17, 2020

“To convince people don’t try to reach their head try to reach their heart.” 

― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words
The options from over 1 year ago…
A Quick Overview of UK-EU Negotiations 7
  1. No Deal is the same (rebranded) as an “Australia-style” Deal.
… Read the rest

Comment on Mobility Data

Bruno Costanzo October 18, 2020

Weekly Political Compass

In recent weeks some market economists have drawn attention to the recent down ticks in mobility data as an early indicator of a slow down in economic activity within Europe.… Read the rest

US Presidential Election Series 2020

Bruno Costanzo December 14, 2020

“2016 was a failure of the imagination, not a failure in data”

– Matthew Shelter, Fox News Pollster

Official Polls Converging with High Frequency Data

As we draw closer to November 3rd, the past week has seen some top outlets (NY Times/Fox News) released a series of polls suggesting the Trump campaign has fallen further behind in the key battleground states.

… Read the rest

US Election Forecast

Bruno Costanzo November 2, 2020

We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes
(see below)

Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver’s (FiveThirtyEight) model?… Read the rest

Our Debut Survey Results

Bruno Costanzo November 18, 2020

Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers.… Read the rest