“To convince people don't try to reach their head try to reach their heart.”
― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words
The options from over 1 year ago…
- No Deal is the same (rebranded) as an “Australia-style” Deal.
- The Irish border issue was addressed at the end of last year until the introduction of the United Kingdom Markets (UKIM) Bill this summer.
- The EU's negotiating position has largely remained the same since last year. The nuances are around state aid rules and fisheries (significant for Scotland and Scottish Independence).
- For a Canada-style deal the controversial bits of the UKIM Bill, already scrapped by the House of Lords, must not be reinserted when returned to the House of Commons in early December.
- The government has sufficient majority as of the December 2019, General Election, to pass through either deal.
- Depending on who you speak to, at best one deal is 70/30 more likely.
Tory (Ruling) Party popularity…
The opposition Labor Party is currently polling ahead.
A special thanks to Carsten Nickel in helping to clarify these points.