Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term
The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime chan… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum
Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday’s primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cu… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable
The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their foreign currency position a few months ago and … Become a member to read the […]
ARGENTINA: Mid-term primary takeaways
The governing Front for All (FdT) suffered a major setback in the party primaries held yesterday ahead of the partial mid-term legislative elections scheduled for 14 November – as we previously anticipated. Since voting is obligatory, the primaries assume the form of a large-scal… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: Waiting for the budget
On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks to different factors such as the use o… Become a member to read the rest […]
ARGENTINA: Ruling coalition outwardly united but limping towards primary vote
Party primaries (known as the Open, Simultaneous and Obligatory Primaries, or PASO) take place on 12 September. These are the prelude to the 14 November partial legislative mid-term elections, in which half of the lower house and one-third of the Senate will be renewed. Since vot… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Argentina: Agreement With the IMF: One More Round Is Missing
This week, Argentine financial asset prices soared. Some say that the polls are bad for the government and that is good for the markets. Others attribute the rally to the versions that circulated in the press about an imminent agreement with the IMF. Our base scenario was always … Become a member to read […]
Argentina: Special Analysis on Construction and Real Estate
I. Is there a way to turnaround the economy? Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had reached 4.8% in March is now hovering a… Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: Pro-investment legislation? That’s new!
The government announced this week that it will soon send to the Congress the Law that encourages investments in oil and gas. It is not a Hail Mary play, nor will it be a breaking point, but it is a step forward in the recognition that investments are the only key to long-term gr… […]
Argentina: One Year After the Restructuring, Still Orphans of a Plan
A year ago, Argentina reached an agreement with its main creditors and restructured the public debt in default. That allowed to almost clear the maturities schedule completely. The first year in which the market will see Argentine dollars will be in 2025 when between capital and … Become a member to read the rest […]