January 4, 2021 Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out? Big Picture, Global FX, Asia FX, Emerging Markets Olivier Desbarres ( 14 mins) This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010,... Read More...
December 2, 2020 Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics, Emerging Markets editorial Olivier Desbarres ( 17 mins) Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between... Read More...
October 22, 2020 PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash Global FX, Asia FX CNY, editorial Olivier Desbarres ( 10 mins) Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%)... Read More...
October 8, 2020 Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime Big Picture, Global FX, UK Economics, US Olivier Desbarres ( 12 mins) Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four... Read More...
August 4, 2020 Warnings about US economy and USD overblown Big Picture, Global FX, US Olivier Desbarres ( 12 mins) The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making... Read More...
July 1, 2020 Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics ( 18 mins) Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US... Read More...
July 13, 2020 Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Olivier Desbarres ( 13 mins) Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade... Read More...
May 29, 2020 Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine Big Picture, Global FX, Asia FX ( 8 mins) While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports,... Read More...
January 3, 2020 What you may have missed and why it matters Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Olivier Desbarres ( 10 mins) Financial-market post-mortems for 2019 are out and the bottom line is that the trade was to be long pretty much... Read More...
January 10, 2020 Bank of England’s dovish warning bells ring true Global FX, UK Economics Olivier Desbarres ( 8 mins) Bank of England dovishness should come as little surprise UK GDP growth was negligible over Q2-Q3 2019 – averaging only 0.04%... Read More...
