TURKEY: A rate hike and a narrow path ahead
While a rate hike is in the pocket, a return to a more conventional and transparent economic policy is uncertain. As ever, President Tayyip Erdogan remains the key determining factor, else is choreography. Leaving aside Erdogan, the path ahead for Turkey is a long and narrow one, mainly due to Covid-19, the dire state of […]
US Dollar – Calm before the storm?
The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift ou… Become a member to read the rest of […]
State Of the Markets
fd8136_df8c53b7162d43db84af4656f25a4941 … Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: How far will the central bank go to resist renminbi appreciation?
The renminbi posted its largest quarterly gain against the US dollar in 12 years, but on a trade-weighted basis, recent renminbi gains are less remarkable. The phase one trade deal appears safe for now, and market participants appear unconcerned by US-China tensions on o… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen
Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely: The US Dollar which, contrary to bearish expectations and in line with our benign Dollar view, has treaded water in the past six weeks and since the Fed’s tweak on 27th August to its dua… Become a member to […]
Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely
Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0…. Become a member to read the rest of […]
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets have seemingly taken heart from g… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
The Dollar Depreciation Is Just Starting
fd8136_5781f5152d214817aec3b558443c51f0 … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Further Downside To The USD From Fed QE
fd8136_0be029f966eb4f87b9fe6da7c4b4e999… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Conservative FX markets testing (some) extremes
FX markets’ conservative approach in face of acute coronavirus and macro uncertainty We argued in the 20th April edition of Armchair Trader’s Daily Newsletter that the currency range-trade was making a comeback. In the past 13 trading sessions most developed and emerging market (… Become a member to read the rest of this article