Update On My Recommended Trades
Recommended Open And Closed Trades I have not put out an update since the beginning of the year won my recommended trades so, I thought it was about time. So here goes. I am currently positioning for three themes: Exponential Rebound in US Economic Growth I am positioning for… Become a member to read […]
CHINA: Strengthening renminbi may encourage loosening of capital controls
The renminbi has strengthened 8% against the dollar over the last year, driven by a resurgent trade surplus and strong flows of foreign investment into China’s onshore bond market. Capital outflow restrictions may be loosened this year, as regulators seek to balance inbo… Become a member to read the rest of this article
US and UK: The Comeback Kids
The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correct… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of 87 seats in the lowe… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend
In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely move… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHINA: Digital currency is a hedge against dollar supremacy
Among global central banks, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been among the most aggressive in research and development of a blockchain-based digital currency, including at least 130 pending patent applications. Beijing appears to have diverse motivations, including t… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Currency seasonality’s slow comeback?
This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Excha… Become a member to read the rest of this article
The Year Of COVID: Retrospective of My 2020 Trades
fd8136_0e7d70a35e4b40d898315a175813ca02 As one dog said to the other, “it’s been a long seven years.” That dog year equivalent to human years captures the twists and turns of 2020 as every month seemed like an entire investing year. My trade recommendations in 2020 reflected… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Sunday bloody Sunday
Sterling underperformed in September, in line with our bearish forecast (UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy, 4th September 2020). It gradually recovered from 22nd September, appreciated throughout October and peaked on 27th November. Sterling NEER has si… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross
The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a rising domestic trade surplus and strong capital account inflows. The Renminbi has indeed a… Become a member to read the rest of this article