Rafael Aguilar

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• May 3, 2021

Argentina: Poverty, the Most Important Deficit

Editorial: The Eleventh Hour This week Argentina will make a payment of 300 million dollars to the IMF in interest, but it will not pay the Paris Club instalment of almost 2.5 billion that is also due in May....

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• April 27, 2021

Argentina: Luck Alone Is Not Good Enough

Editorial: Luck Alone Is Not Good Enough The government is lucky. Last week soybean price touched USD 565 per ton, the highest record since November 1, 2012. At that price, soybeans are only 14% from the maximum of USD 650...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• April 22, 2021

Special Analysis on Recent IMF Programs and What They Imply Argentina

I. The economic scenario before and after the elections and the role of the IMF It is increasingly clear that the government is taking every economic decision with an eye on the election and that the 4.8% March inflation rate...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• April 19, 2021

Argentina: From Gloom to Doom

Editorial: From Gloom to Doom The measures announced this week, aimed at containing the impacts of Covid’s second wave, come at a bad time, beyond the controversy with education or institutional issues regarding Buenos Aires autonomy. The last two...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• April 5, 2021

Argentina: Poverty, the Most Important Deficit

Editorial: Poverty, the Most Important Deficit In line with expectations, The Statistics Agency announced that 42% of Argentines are below the poverty line. The data correspond to the second semester of last year and marked a rise of 1.5...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 30, 2021

Argentina: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera

Editorial: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera The International Monetary Fund’s soap opera with Argentina seems to have a lot of rating. The producers told the writers to keep adding characters and plots. It seems that there is...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 23, 2021

Argentina: Tax Policy Has Gone Bananas

Few things reflect a divergence from normal countries’ policy choices than the proposals to modify the Income tax that are in Congress. We have already discussed in this report about the regressiveness of the elimination of Income tax for...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 22, 2021

Argentina: The Month at a Glance

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS • With an USD 1.9 trillion relief bill and full vaccination as early as June, the US is set for a stronger than expected recovery in 2021. International markets remain bullish, but inflation anxiety is on the...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 16, 2021

Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration?

Editorial: Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration? With Argentine bond yields approaching 20% a year, some begin to wonder if Argentina will have to restructure its debt again, despite the fact that the agreement with bondholders was...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 9, 2021

Argentina: The First Two Months in Black and White

Already in March we can make a preliminary balance of what the summer is leaving us. The best part came from the macroeconomic side. With the price of soybeans firm around USD 500 per ton and the prospects of...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• March 1, 2021

Argentina: The Summer Ends Without Surprises

Contrary to what the turbulent Argentine history of summer crises could foretell, the summer is ending more calmly than expected. The exchange rate spreads fell, the dollar did not jump sharply and activity is on course for a recovery...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• February 23, 2021

Argentina: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Special Analysis on the Provinces’ Fiscal and Debt Situation We are happy to celebrate the 200 th edition of Econviews’ monthly report. Appropriately, our first edition in September 2003 centered on the ongoing debt restructuration, while our 100 th...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• February 22, 2021

Argentina: The Wrong Medicine Against Inflation

Controlling inflation has become a priority for the government on the road to elections. The high records of December and January, which are unlikely to recede much in February, have accelerated the search for recipes that help lower inflation....

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• February 17, 2021

Argentina: Income Tax Populism

Last week, the government presented a bill to modify the income tax paid by individuals that is a step back from many angles. The central idea is that just over half of the salaried workers who today pay the...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• February 8, 2021

Argentina: Never Ending Restrictions

Since November 2011, Argentina has lived with financial restrictions except for three and a half years, from the beginning of 2016 to September 2019. The perspective is that it will have many more years of exchange restrictions, at least...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• February 1, 2021

Argentina: The Tailwind and the Deficit

With the vaccination processes underway in most of the world, the general feeling is that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, although there is a way to go that will probably take much of 2021. The world...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• January 25, 2021

Argentina: Watch Out for the Summer!

Those who are "at-risk groups" will remember February 6, 1989: that day the Plan Primavera in times of José Luis Machinea and Juan Sourrouille blew up. Convertibility began in April 1991 and was the product of a difficult summer....

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• January 21, 2021

Argentina: Diluted stabilization plan

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Worldwide, states must deal with shortages, bottlenecks and other logistical issues in the effort to vaccinate their populations against Covid-19. Argentina has applied around 200,000 shots of the Sputnik V vaccine, ahead of other South American countries...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• December 22, 2020

Argentina: Diluted stabilization plan

Last Friday Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa, Axel Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, among other leaders of the governing coalition, gathered in La Plata to rename a football stadium after Diego Maradona. In terms of Argentine politics, this is the...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• December 10, 2020

Argentina: Deficit and inflation in 2021

The monthly survey of market expectations carried out by the Central Bank among 42 economic teams revealed that the median of the responses is 50% inflation for next year. If the most optimistic and pessimistic 10% are excluded from...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews