Editorial: The Eleventh Hour
This week Argentina will make a payment of 300 million dollars to the IMF in interest, but it will not pay the Paris Club instalment of almost 2.5 billion that is also due in May. In principle, it will use the two months grace period allowed by the Club’s rules before declaring Argentina in default. We believe that the Paris Club maturity will not be paid, but there are some movements in the government to do so. This question is not fully defined.
The Central Bank and the Treasury Are Preparing for the Winter
The monetary base expanded AR$ 55,000 million so far in April, equivalent to the last Central Bank’s transfer to the government. However, unlike what happened in the first quarter, where the Treasury had been expansive in net terms, in the accumulated of the month it has been contractionary since both the Central Bank’s and the market’s financing obtained were not used so far.
Consumption and the Pandemic: From Shock to Shock
With restrictions renewed until May 21, at least in Greater Buenos Aires, and with face-to-face classes in the City partially suspended, consumption is preparing to suffer a new blow this fall-winter. Although this today affects the AMBA more than anything (which still represents almost half of the productive apparatus), looking at last year’s trends it is quite clear that sooner or later the restrictions will reach several or all urban centers in the interior.
Econviews Weekly May 3rd 2021