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March 30, 2021

The Week at a Glance

Argentina: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera

BY Miguel A. Kiguel, Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Lorena Giorgio, Rafael Aguilar, Isaías Marini

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( 2 mins)

Editorial: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera

The International Monetary Fund’s soap opera with Argentina seems to have a lot of rating. The producers told the writers to keep adding characters and plots. It seems that there is no chance that it will end before December. The last chapter was filmed in Buenos Aires and Washington, in a production effort.

 

Fiscal Relief Comes From Outside, but Pressures Persist

In February, the first primary deficit of the year was registered, and on early March the Treasury needed financing from the Central Bank to face some payments. Despite the local debt market being on the government’s side in this first quarter, electoral spending has not yet taken off, and the consequences of a second wave of Covid-19 infections could add pressure to fiscal accounts in the coming months. The agreement with the IMF is delayed and it is practically ruled out that it will arrive before the October elections, so the process of fiscal consolidation will continue without a predictable roadmap.

 

Double Digit Unemployment Is Here to Stay

The unemployment rate closed the year at 11%, a rise of 2.1 points compared to the end of 2019. This figure is somewhat better than expected, but leaves no reason to celebrate since it hides more than it shows. Furthermore, the expectation is that it will be some time before Argentina can return to a single-digit unemployment rate

 

Econviews Weekly March 29th 2021

More by Miguel A. Kiguel, Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Lorena Giorgio, Rafael Aguilar, Isaías Marini