Africa September 1, 2021 Zambia: Hichilema’s honeymoon Zambia, Politics Anne Frühauf Freshly inaugurated President Hakainde Hichilema is riding a wave of goodwill. Yet the reform process ahead will undoubtedly be politically painful and administratively challenging; it will be measured by the next budget, IMF talks and debt restructuring efforts. The new administration... Read More...
Africa August 17, 2021 ZAMBIA: Opposition landslide, daunting legacy Zambia, Politics Anne Frühauf Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema has won the 12 August presidential election by a landslide, trouncing incumbent President Edgar Lungu by close to 1mn votes. Despite three days of tensions and suggestions that Lungu’s side might refuse to accept the results,... Read More...
Africa August 9, 2021 ZAMBIA: High-stakes elections on 12 August Zambia, Politics Anne Frühauf General elections will take place on Thursday, 12 August. The recent deployment of the military highlights the risk of electoral violence around the high-stakes polls. As explained previously, the presidential election should be opposition leader Hakainde... Read More...
Africa July 28, 2021 ZAMBIA: High-stakes elections Zambia, Politics Anne Frühauf The main concern about the 12 August general elections is to what extent they will be free and fair, increasing the risk of electoral violence and disputes. Although the presidential poll should be opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema’s to lose, the... Read More...
Africa March 2, 2021 ZAMBIA: Might Zambia finally clinch an IMF deal? Zambia, Emerging Markets, Politics editorial, IMF Anne Frühauf Three weeks of talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are due to conclude on 3 March. Since Zambia plans to seek debt treatment under the G20’s ‘Common Framework for Debt Treatment beyond the DSSI,’ the... Read More...
Africa December 18, 2020 ZAMBIA: Plan spells headline risk for miners, no clear upside for IMF deal Zambia, Emerging Markets, Politics IMF Anne Frühauf On 17 December, President Edgar Lungu launched Zambia’s new Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) 2020-2023. If Lungu’s ERP was meant to please the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the immediate effect was to generate headline risk as Lungu signaled his intention to... Read More...
Africa December 9, 2020 ZAMBIA: How much hope for an IMF program? Zambia, Emerging Markets, Politics editorial, IMF Anne Frühauf The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today, 9 December, that it “will be assessing in the coming weeks how the IMF could support the authorities’ reform efforts through a possible Fund program.” Zambia’s request was widely expected, but the... Read More...
Africa November 13, 2020 ZAMBIA: Point of no return Zambia, Emerging Markets, Politics editorial Anne Frühauf Finance Minister Bwalya Ng’andu confirmed today, 13 November, that Zambia would “have no other alternative but to accumulate arrears” on its 2024 Eurobond, where the grace period on a USD 42.5mn coupon payment expires today. Zambia’s slide into official... Read More...
Africa October 20, 2020 ZAMBIA: Aborted Bondholder Meeting Signals Messy, Protracted Debt Restructuring Zambia, Emerging Markets, Politics Anne Frühauf Zambia seems increasingly unlikely to make its outstanding USD 42.5mn coupon payment within the 30-day grace period. While the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) will now offer bilateral debt relief until June 2021 (and likely the full year), Zambia’s... Read More...
