The proposed constitutional changes allow President Vladimir Putin to serve two more six-year terms, but he is unlikely to reveal his future role anytime soon. The revised constitution will likely be approved in a nationwide vote in April unless the poll is postponed to a later date due to COVID-19. Measures to contain the disease could be also used to mitigate public protests that are likely to accompany the poll. Uncertainty surrounding the eventual power transition makes the country’s political and business environment unpredictable in the long term.
On 11 March, in a final reading parliament adopted a law with more than 200 amendments to the country’s 1993 constitution. The number and scope of the amendments has been considerably expanded compared to the initial proposals outlined by Putin in January. The bill, which has been already approved by all regional parliaments, still requires validation from the constitutional court, which is likely to come in the next few days. The last major step for the amendments to come into force will be the popular vote scheduled for 22 April, which would cement the legitimacy of the new constitution.
Since most Russian voters are not familiar with the constitutional nuances, the vote will likely be interpreted as a referendum on Putin’s potential presidency post-2024. As a result, the upcoming vote could be accompanied by considerable social unrest. However, large demonstrations are likely to be prevented by the COVID-19 containment measures. Moscow’s authorities have already banned all public events with 5,000 or more attendees until 10 April and these measures are likely to be extended and tightened if the virus continues to spread. Such restrictions, however, may also negatively affect the turnout.
The majority of voters is likely to approve the amendments, but the result might be less convincing than the Kremlin is hoping for. Recent polling data shows that only around 25% of the electorate supports the changes, 10% opposes them, and 37% are still undecided. Public opinion is even more ambiguous on Putin’s rule after 2024 with 46% saying that president should leave the post and 45% saying that he should stay. To drum up voter support, the Kremlin will likely initiate a broad informational campaign highlighting the most popular constitutional provisions such as indexing of pensions and social benefits or identifying children as the main priority of state policy.
Yet of the approximately 200 new amendments proposed, the one drawing the most attention pertains to Article 81, which allows the incumbent president to be elected for two additional terms in office. This gives Putin multiple options ahead of the 2024 presidential poll without committing him to run for the post. Such unpredictability reinforces Putin’s authority and mitigates the risk of potentially destabilizing infighting among political elites in the near term.
Contrary to initial expectations, the constitutional amendments do not weaken presidential powers; conversely, the revisions expand the president’s role in appointing top judges and allowing for the blocking legislation with the approval of the constitutional court. This leaves the fundamental issue of power concentration in the hands of an autocratic leader unaddressed. Uncertainty surrounding the eventual power transition makes Russia’s political and business environment volatile in the long term.
