February 5, 2021

Macro Series

Comment: Asset prices overvalued? Two views and a conclusion

BY John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping

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( < 1 min) Shiller’s ‘Excess cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio’ suggests little overvaluation. But a Minsky typology suggests that prices are 5-6 steps out of 9 along the road to crisis. We see no definitive overvaluation yet: but it is Minsky that we shall be monitoring.

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