Please find attached the January issue of our monthly Economic Risks. Below is a top-level summary:
A rampaging virus and lockdowns extend secondary dips
Immunisation programmes take time to reach critical mass
Bankruptcies, joblessness, poverty, and inequality escalate
Inflation falls further and remains uncomfortably low
Unconventional macro policy support is further extended
Real activity takes many years to approach prior trend
[pdf-embedder url="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Economic-Risks-Llewellyn-Consulting-January-2021.pdf" title="Economic
Macro Series
Economic Risks
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Global Letter – Structural reform will differentiate countries
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January 13, 2021
( < 1 min read ) Investors would be well advised to pay close attention to how countries’ structural policies rate Register for FREE or log in to read the rest of this report. Members loginUsername or E-mail* Password* Only fill
Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond
Llewellyn Consulting
December 11, 2020
( 2 mins read ) LlewellynConsulting’s Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond details what we judge most likely to happen; and pays particular attention to detailing what we see as the main risks and uncertainties. There is
Global Letter – Mind the gap: ambition v action
Llewellyn Consulting
December 10, 2020
( < 1 min read ) For net-zero GHG emissions pledges to be credible, change needs to happen forthwith Register for FREE or log in to read the rest of this report. Members loginUsername or E-mail* Password* Only fill in
Economic Risks
Teneo
December 2, 2020
( < 1 min read ) Secondary dips in activity multiplying before vaccines arrive A US Presidential inauguration surrounded by chaos Inflation falling further and remaining uncomfortably low Fiscal support being extended, further boosting debt ratios Central banks becoming yet more
Global Letter: A tale of toggle PIKs
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November 20, 2020
( < 1 min read ) Credit market excesses typically occur in times of low interest rates, when investor demand for higher-yielding instruments leads to the creation of asset classes with returns that, in hindsight, were out of line with the
Global Letter: Groundhog day in Turkey
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November 19, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they
Comment: The importance of inflation expectations
Llewellyn Consulting
November 17, 2020
( 9 mins read ) Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For
Economic Risks
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November 5, 2020
( 6 mins read ) OECD: second waves and double dips The first half saw the sharpest and broadest contraction in OECD economic activity since the Great Depression. After a rapid rebound in Q3, when lockdowns were eased, recovery has
Comment – Default Options
Llewellyn Consulting
October 28, 2020
( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is
Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon
Llewellyn Consulting
October 20, 2020
( 2 mins read ) It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the
Global Letter – Cold realities
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October 16, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental.
Postcard: Staycation in London
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October 2, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Cleaner, less noisy, less polluted, but operating well below capacity. Not being keen on self-isolating, we decided not to travel abroad this year, but rather to have a (ghastly word) ‘staycation’ in London. After all,
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Suga's now underwater in Yomiuri too.
自民党の支持率はほぼ横ばい ーー 菅内閣「不支持」49%・「支持」39%で初の逆転、コロナ対策に不満か…読売世論調査(読売新聞オンライン)
#Yahooニュース
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/26e3dc2c0a3512ca7b273f3fba2ab74837217980
EU lays out plan to block US weaponization of interdependence. Devil will be in the details. Most important, will European capitals be willing to face the commercial risk to their firms of large scale resistance. And can EU build the institutions to do so. https://www.ft.com/content/20f39e33-e360-479e-82e2-5441d24f0e0b?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6
#france invokes its new #fdi screening mechanism to prevent a Canadian company from acquiring grocery retail giant #Carrefour, claiming #covid had demonstrated how this deal would hinder #natsec 🤔 https://www.politico.eu/article/france-carrefour-takeover-food-security-battle/
The best thing about this article is that Drew clearly went to Bethesda Row wearing this ridiculous thing, which somehow seems fitting.
One more time for everyone in the back: my adventures gallivanting about in a dipshit COVID helmet. https://www.sfgate.com/culture/editorspicks/article/drew-magary-coronavirus-helmet-microclimate-air-15867960.php
Si excelente y también recomiendo el de catterberg
Muy buen artículo @eduardoyeyati LA NACION - Sin un consenso disruptivo, no hay futuro posible para la Argentina - http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2570029
Según una encuesta de @Poliarquia_ y @PxP_LAC el 89% de los argentinos está a favor de que se frene la deforestación 🪵🔥🌳
@gabrielpodesta @natilouz
https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/el-89-argentinos-esta-favor-se-frene-nid2571937
People who like their own tweets should be considered suspect
Brexit reality is sinking in. Really great article by @tconnellyRTE 👇🏼 https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0115/1190108-brexit-analysis-and-comment/
Sending MIT Professor Gang Chen to prison for up to 20 years for "failing to disclose" something that MIT bragged about on its website would be the ultimate "kill the chicken to scare the monkeys" signal to US researchers, especially ethnic Chinese.
This is the source of funding that FBI is charging my MIT colleague, Gang Chen, of going to length to hide. I found the place where he hid it—a place called internet.