Teneo

EUROZONE: Merkron’s main risk is the interregnum (Italian politics in H2)

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The Franco-German proposal for a budget-based recovery instrument is a promising first step, but significant political challenges still loom in H2/2020.A unique constellation of factors has motivated Berlin to move, but among the many open questions are reform commitments and repayment modalities.The main risk is that Italy’s potential need for immediate support sees the debate about the initiative get mixed up with more traditional fights over “conditionality.” Although nobody in Berlin would want to call it like this, the Franco-German proposal effectively envisages the Commiss

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GERMANY: Budget 2021 – A glimpse at the fault lines of post-Merkel politics

Teneo September 24, 2020

( 3 mins read ) Press play to listen Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet has signed off on the draft budget for 2021 as well as the medium-term fiscal plan until 2024. As national debt is expected to re-increase to around

EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

Teneo September 24, 2020

( 6 mins read ) In this updated weekly piece, we provide snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the

SPAIN: Politics make a nationwide lockdown unlikely for now

Teneo September 23, 2020

( 3 mins read ) Despite the ongoing surge in Covid-19 cases across the country, the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE)-Unidas Podemos government is unlikely to re-impose a nationwide lockdown anytime soon. As previously explained, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will continue

EUROPE: Alongside the virus, institutional capacity issues resurface

Teneo September 23, 2020

( 5 mins read ) Press play to listen Medical capacities The first and most immediate variant is the question of medical capacity. In a special briefing one day prior to the government’s statement, the UK’s chief scientific and medical

ITALY: More of the same (and it’s not that good)

Teneo September 22, 2020

( 4 mins read ) The outcome of the regional elections was not disruptive for the ruling coalition.Yet, the government remains inherently ill-suited to address the country’s economic challenges, even with the help of EU money. The Lega-led center-right opposition

ITALY: Regional elections – what to watch for

Teneo September 21, 2020

( 3 mins read ) Polls closed in Italy late on Sunday (20 September) in the first of two days of voting on a nationwide constitutional referendum and local elections. Voting continues today, with polling stations closing at 3pm local

TURKEY: It is about the pandemic not the East Med dispute

Teneo September 17, 2020

( 4 mins read ) The trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic constitutes a much more tangible and immediate risk for Turkey’s economy than the Greek-Turkish dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean.The withdrawal of the Turkish seismic research vessel from the contested

EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

Teneo September 17, 2020

ITALY: A 3-3 draw or a thumping victory for the center-right?

Teneo September 16, 2020

( 5 mins read ) The wobbly ruling coalition led by the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) faces an important political test this weekend as seven of Italy’s 20 regions will go to the polls.As the

EU: What “strategic autonomy” actually means

Teneo September 15, 2020

( 3 mins read ) Heads of the EU institutions and Chinese President Xi Jinping convened for a high-level online meeting yesterday. The gathering replaced the initially envisaged EU-China summit, for which German Chancellor Angela Merkel had intended to bring

UK/EU: Ultimatum from Brussels – deal or no-deal by end-September

Teneo September 10, 2020

( 3 mins read ) At an emergency meeting of the Brexit joint committee, the EU has handed an ultimatum to the UK. Either the government amends its UK internal market bill which is deemed – by both sides –

EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

Teneo September 10, 2020

( 5 mins read ) n this updated weekly piece, we provide snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the

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Twitter

Tobias Harris @observingjapan·

I have a new post in the Prime Minister's Time section of my website, analyzing Suga's schedule for the week of 9/20. http://observingjapan.com/2020/09/26/the-week-of-20-september-2020/

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Retweet on Twitter Tobias Harris Retweeted

Foreign Affairs@ForeignAffairs·

“The rising tide of the global economy might not explain all of Abe’s success, but it certainly helped.”
https://trib.al/EmgmLVA

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Retweet on Twitter Andres Borenstein Retweeted

Gary Lineker@GaryLineker·

Spot on. https://twitter.com/bbcsport/status/1309931997897334785

BBC Sport@BBCSport

Roy Hodgson is NOT happy.

He says the new handball law is "killing the game".

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Retweet on Twitter Tobias Harris Retweeted

Foreign Affairs@ForeignAffairs·

15h

Shinzo Abe presided over an era of stability in Japan, but his successor does not share Abe’s luck, @observingjapan writes. Japan’s economy has sunk into a recession and Beijing’s recent actions have entirely undone Abe’s pursuit of a rapprochement.
https://trib.al/GW4kv2W

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Andres Borenstein @Coloboren·

15h

En 4 de los últimos 5 meses las importaciones pagadas fueron superiores a las computadas en aduana. En exportaciones la tendencia es la opuesta: llevamos 7 meses seguidos con menos ingreso de dólares que exportaciones. Así es la brecha XL. Imposible que no falten dólares. #MULC

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Retweet on Twitter Antonio Barroso Retweeted

Barry Eichengreen @B_Eichengreen·

25 Sep

"Risks and Opportunities for the Euro" https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2020)652751 . A study Daniel Gros and I did for the European Parliament on the prospects for enhancing the currency's international role.

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Retweet on Twitter Tobias Harris Retweeted

Foreign Affairs@ForeignAffairs·

25 Sep

Shinzo Abe presided over an astonishing period of stability in Japan. His successor promises continuity, but a recession, an aggressive China, and a possible second Trump term will make it difficult to deliver on that promise, @observingjapan argues.
https://trib.al/Bcbe1U8

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Christopher Orr@OrrChris·

25 Sep

Michael Anton, one of the preeminent "intellectuals" of Trump World, didn't know that TPP--a trade agreement whose entire purpose was to counterbalance China--didn't include China. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1309465052135796737

Bill Kristol@BillKristol

From @EdwardGLuce's fine newsletter:
"In 2017...Anton was a spokesman for Trump’s NSC. He was asked why Trump had withdrawn from the TPP. His reply: the US did not want to belong to a trade group that included China. China did not belong to the TPP..."
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?zx=sak2yt4v4cou#inbox/WhctKJVzgRNDXCWlxQnDGQbSVDtBbBkkcWGQdxmWqbxtRkgkbnZHdnZLGqBpjwRrmggPfbB

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Tobias Harris @observingjapan·

25 Sep

I don't think I've read anything that lays bare America's "cold civil war" as well as @jbouie does here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/opinion/trump-supreme-court-missouri-compromise.html

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Gabriel Caamaño @EcoLedesma·

25 Sep

Pucha, qué DURA qué esta la economía argentina...
La economía argentina:
https://r24n.com/contenido/198177/primicia-exclusiva-alvarez-agis-remplazaria-a-martin-guzman-como-ministro-de-eco

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EUROZONE: Merkron’s main risk is the interregnum (Italian politics in H2)

Contact report analysts

US Election Series 2020

Roundtable: GOP Data Scientists on Big Data and US Election Polling

Scott Tranter

Optimus Analytics

Tuesday 11th August 2020 at 12:00 ET / 17:00 UK

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