US/CHINA: Trade deal in danger from US election politics

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● Given declining imports from the US in the first quarter, China appears unlikely to meet the ambitious purchase commitments in the phase-one trade deal. ● US President Donald Trump likely prefers to continue casting the deal as an achievement, and the pandemic offers an obvious force majeure-style excuse for China's missing the targets. ● But with "tough on China" themes playing an increasing role in the US presidential campaign, risks are rising that Trump will decide to step back from the deal. Recent trade data indicate that China is unlikely to meet the purchase commi
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