Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is expected to renew the state of emergency that lapses on 30 April. However, encouraged by the overall decline in new cases and fatalities, the government is planning to ease movement and business restrictions in stages across provinces. Currently, the whole of Thailand is under an overnight curfew ordered by Prayuth, while other restrictions are determined at the provincial level. Governors are appointed by the Minister of Interior; so, while some confusion may be expected as provinces tweak their policies, open contradiction of Bangkok’s orders are unlikely.
As long as the number of new cases do not significantly shift upward from the current trend, then the policies for May could be issued, next week:
- A nationwide 10pm to 4am curfew may be maintained, but with some allowances for deliveries.
- Retail businesses for household consumption (e.g. general stores) and personal goods (e.g. electronics and mobile phones), as well as some personal services could be allowed to operate. However, there are likely to be restrictions on allowable customer density, and prohibitions on promotions that would tend to cause clustering. Provinces free of the virus could see more latitude.
- Entertainment and recreational venues are likely to remain shuttered, and social, commercial or business activities premised on gatherings will also be prohibited.
- School opening has already been scheduled for July (instead of the traditional May).
- Construction activities may resume, but the transportation of materials across borders may initially not be allowed.
- What will be allowed as inter-provincial travel may be unpredictable, as many provinces will attempt to prevent imported infections, even though domestic tourist establishments may be allowed to reopen
- Rules on social distancing and the wearing of mask are also likely to be maintained, and will be enforced strictly where people may cluster, such as malls and restaurants.
Of Thailand’s 76 provinces, an estimated 32 have had no new cases diagnosed in the past two weeks, and these, together with the nine that have never had any reported cases, may be the first to benefit from the policy change or from looser restrictions. Many of these provinces are in the rural north and northeast. Key tourist provinces such Surat Thani and Chiang Mai, as well as the industry heavy Rayong, where Thailand has its largest petrochemical facility, may only see restrictions eased by mid-May.
Finally, the cities and provinces that have had the highest infection rates will be the last to open, possibly June. These would include the capital Bangkok, the southern provinces that are near Malaysia, and the tourist center Phuket. However, there are reports that Phuket may allow tourist enterprises to reopen.
Starting this weekend, Thailand reopened some land border crossings with its neighboring countries to allow its citizens to return home. To closely monitor arrivals, only 100 Thais will be allowed to reenter daily at each border checkpoint (estimated to be around 21 spread across the country’s frontiers with Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Malaysia), and they will be required to self-quarantine for two weeks. They are also being required to show a certificate from the Thai embassy that they are Covid-19-free. International transmission has been responsible for an increase in cases in Singapore and Hong Kong, and whether a similar pattern emerges in Thailand in the coming two weeks will be closely scrutinized, which argues against any quick reopening of foreign travel into the country.