COLOMBIA: Cabinet reset may ease congressional strains but protests to resume

On 7 February, President Ivan Duque finally ended weeks of speculation with the announcement of a partial cabinet reshuffle. Three portfolios – Health, Labor, and Agriculture – have new ministers, while a change at Interior was announced at the end of January. Takeaways and implications are examined below. Duque’s objective is to engineer a more solid alliance in Congress by giving other parties representation in cabinet. Health goes to Fernando Ruiz Gomez, a German Vargas Lleras lieutenant; while Vargas Lleras does not command the loyalty of the entire Radical Change (CR) party, the former VP can marshal most of the CR bloc in Congress. Similarly, Labor goes to a “U” party member, Angel Custodio Cabrera, while Agriculture is an enticement for the Conservatives. Unlike the “U” and Conservatives, the CR is not a formal member of the governing coalition, which makes its 30 seats in the lower house and 16 in the Senate a vital linchpin for Duque. The limited scope of the reshuffle and the time it took Duque to act reflects the narrow path that he has had to tread: the president needed to improve governability without being seen to cast aside his pledge to eschew the highly transactional pork-barrel model of politics (known as mermelada) that Uribismo had condemned so vociferously in opposition. Moreover, a policy of greater openness has faced resistance from sectors of the Democratic Center (CD) who have always viewed Duque with suspicion and whose relations with Vargas Lleras are deeply rancorous. Finally, there are costs for any party being seen to support such an unpopular administration, whose draft proposals on labor and pension reform have been so controversial; there are credible reports that cabinet positions were rejected by another CR faction. The most important ministries continue to be occupied by loyal Uribistas. These now include new Interior Minister Alicia Arango, an experienced political operator from former president Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010)’s inner circle. However, Arango has a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator, which will be an important asset in Congress, where her predecessor Nancy Patricia Gutierrez seemed out of her depth. If Duque’s gambit pays off, management of Congress should prove less problematic once the new congressional session gets going from mid-March. However, Duque will still face opposition on the streets, as evinced by an angry public reaction to Arango’s recent comments expressing support for hourly working rates, which unions see as eroding job security, undermining worker pensions, and ultimately benefitting business. Duque may be betting that the protest movement crumbles under the weight of its multiple demands. The movement’s leadership may well be divided and chaotic, but it would be a mistake to underestimate both the extent of public malaise and protestors’ capacity to force a dilution of labor and pension reform proposals. The next test of the strength for the protest movement will come on 25 March, when mass rallies are planned.

February 10, 2020

COLOMBIA: Cabinet reset may ease congressional strains but protests to resume

BY Nicholas Watson

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COLOMBIA: Cabinet reset may ease congressional strains but protests to resume

BY Nicholas Watson

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COLOMBIA: Tax reform detonates major political crisis

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CHILE: Another populist lurch as government beaten on third pension withdrawal

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PERU: The lowdown on hard-left outsider vying for the presidency

ARGENTINA: Clash over schooling sets up protracted electoral confrontation

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