PERU: A fragmented caretaker congress (with some unsettling features)

Vote counting is still ongoing following the 26 January congressional elections for the 2020-2021 period. In Lima – the biggest electoral district by far with 33% of voters – the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) has yet to process around 10% of ballots. In the absence of confirmed results, a quick count carried out on 26 January by Ipsos Peru remains the basis for projected results. With the caveat that the count is incomplete and that seat bloc projections are not yet final – particularly because it is not clear whether the Together for Peru (JP) has passed the vote threshold – initial takeaways are examined below. As forecast, this will be a much more fragmented legislature with nine (possibly ten) blocs, and no single party dominant. No party appears to have obtained much more than 10% of valid votes. As a result, no bloc is projected to have more than around 18% of seats in the 130-seat Congress. Voters have punished parties involved in corruption and/or wanton obstructionism. The Fuerza Popular (FP) is much reduced (from 73 seats in 2016 and 54 most recently, down to a projected 12 now), while the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA, also known as the Aprista Party) will not have a presence in Congress for the first time in decades. In parallel, parties that performed well were largely those that have escaped association with the wave of Odebrecht-related corruption scandals because they were out of power, in political hibernation, or politically low-grade; these include Popular Action (AP), the Popular Agricultural Front of Peru (Frepap), and Podemos Peru (PP). A significant minority of voters (around 16% according to the quick count) have opted for two highly controversial movements. These are the Frepap and the Union for Peru (UPP). The Frepap is an indigenist, ultra-conservative party founded on a controversial millenarian evangelical movement (Aeminpu) whose late founder, Ezequiel Ataucusi Gamonal, is regarded as a prophet. The UPP vote is surely explained by the party’s alliance with Antauro Humala’s Patriotic Front grouping. The Patriotic Front espouses a brand of extreme ethnic nationalism known as Etnocacerismo; Humala himself is serving a 19-year sentence for rebellion, homicide, and aggravated kidnap relating to the 2005 “Andahuaylazo” uprising. The instability arising from the FP’s dominant position in the 2016-2019 legislature is a thing of the past, even if in the life of this Congress (to July 2021), a new kind of instability will likely flow from the near-constant need to negotiate and find consensus. Jockeying for the 2021 presidential race is likely to accelerate. The PP’s Daniel Urresti’s election to Congress gives him new impetus. The centrist Purple Party (PM) looks to have disappointed in its first electoral test, which is a setback for Julio Guzman. The AP, despite its relatively strong showing, is plagued by internal divisions. Cesar Acuna will likely be a candidate after the quick count suggests the Alliance for Progress (APP) may have the second biggest bloc of 18 seats. Meanwhile, Humala is only scheduled for release from prison in 2024, while the Frepap does not appear to have a viable presidential contender. However, these two parties’ performance underlines the persistent appeal of anti-establishment outsiders and populists, which could be magnified in 2021 given subpar growth, a migrant influx, and the re-foundational rhetoric that will likely accompany Peru’s bicentenary.

January 28, 2020

PERU: A fragmented caretaker congress (with some unsettling features)

BY Nicholas Watson

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January 28, 2020

PERU: A fragmented caretaker congress (with some unsettling features)

BY Nicholas Watson

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