Speevr logo
Report

PERU: What to expect from 26 January congressional elections

Table of Contents

Elections for the 130-seat Congress take place on 26 January. The elections follow the dissolution of the previous legislature on 30 September. As such, the new Congress will only sit until July 2021, after the resumption of the normal electoral timetable. Polling is very limited, and the nature of the voting system makes accurate forecasting difficult. Additionally, all polls indicate a high level of undecided voters. However, it is possible to infer a few points that will be important for the political outlook.

With voting obligatory, voter disillusionment with the political class can be expressed via absenteeism or by casting blank or spoiled votes. In 2016, the absent/blank/spoiled vote reached 36%; a significantly higher percentage this time around could be a rebuke to all the parties. However, there is a caveat: without an accompanying presidential vote and with parts of Peru in the rainy season, absenteeism could be high, while spoiled votes can be explained by the complicated voting system.

The new Congress is likely to be more balanced than the 2016-2019 legislature; around seven parties appear likely to pass threshold rules, four of which will have sizeable voting blocs. These are Popular Action (AP), Fuerza Popular (FP), the Alliance for Progress (APP), and the new Purple Party (PM), which are all either centrist or right of center.

Since there will be no official governing party, these four parties will be crucial for governability. The PM and AP could work with the leftist Broad Front (FA) on some political and anti-corruption reforms, while the PM, AP, and APP could coordinate on economic policy. However, the scope for major policy initiatives between now and July 2021 is limited. To an extent, both the new Congress and President Martin Vizcarra are caretakers.

The FP will be reduced in number (the party began the 2016 legislature with a 73-strong bloc); over 30 seats would be a very strong result, providing some vindication for imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who has increased his involvement in the campaign given his daughter Keiko’s legal troubles. As ever, the FP could swell its numbers via post-vote party-switching. However, whatever the result, a return to the highly obstructionist FP of 2016-2019 is unlikely.

The new Congress will mark the debut of the Purple Party, whose leader Julio Guzman has his sights set firmly on the 2021 presidential race. As a market-friendly centrist, the success of Guzman’s pitch and performance will an important indicator of political support for continuing the current economic model.

Guzman is not the only 2021 presidential contender waiting in the wings; Sunday’s election is something of a preview for the 2021 race. A good APP performance will help maintain Cesar Acuna’s aspirations, while any seats that Podemos Peru can win will keep former interior minister Daniel Urresti in the pre-race. On the Left, the FA’s Marco Arana will hope to eclipse his rival Veronika Mendoza, whose Nuevo Peru (NP) grouping has joined with the corruption-tainted Together for Peru (JP), but which may not meet voting threshold requirements; the Left will remain fragmented. Another party that is unlikely to secure seats is the Union for Peru (UPP), to which the imprisoned Antauro Humala has hitched his Patriotic Front; the UPP’s vote tally will attest to the public appetite for harsh law and order measures and ultra-nationalism.

Subscribe to receive updates from Teneo

Most recent by Teneo

report

Share this page

Teneo-Europe-Report

PERU: What to expect from 26 January congressional elections

Elections for the 130-seat Congress take place on 26 January. The elections follow the dissolution of the previous legislature on 30 September. As such, the new