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Sterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in a world of depressed currency volatility. Markets have seemingly taken comfort from the (modest) widening of the gap between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour party in opinion polls to about 10pp and YouGov predicting that Prime Minister Johnson would secure a material parliamentary majority at the 12th December general election. Upward revisions to UK composite PMI data for November have also at the margin dispelled the notion that UK GDP growth
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PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash

( 10 mins read ) Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%). The Renminbi’s steady

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Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

( 12 mins read ) Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant

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UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

( 12 mins read ) Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of

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Warnings about US economy and USD overblown

( 12 mins read ) The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1

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China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope

( 10 mins read ) Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in

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United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future

( 14 mins read ) Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via

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Here I discuss the international role of the euro with @Aligarciaherrer https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/politics-not-economics-demands-stronger-role-for-euro/

¿Fue buena la licitación de hoy? Si, fue buena. Pero era totalmente esperable con las expectativas de devaluación por las nubes. ¿Resolvió algún problema de fondo? Ninguno. Se ganó algo de tiempo. Restan ver 2 cosas importantes: % sector público y % que viene del desarme leliqs

After 2 weeks of multiple health screens and asking everyone to quarantine, I surprised my closest inner circle with a trip to a private island where we could pretend things were normal just for a brief moment in time.

The Merkel Plan for Wave II:

Close restaurants, bars, gyms, theaters through November, strict limits on social gatherings.

BUT: schools and daycare centers stay open!

This is evidence-based leadership during a crisis.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-10/coronavirus-bundesregierung-oeffentliches-leben-neue-massnahmen

Among the other things Suga has done in October: five visits to a dentist. First an 83-minute appointment on 10/11, then four follow-up appointments ten minutes each.

Someone's not getting any Halloween candy this year.

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