March 1, 2021 Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets UK Economics, UK Politics The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority... Read More...
March 5, 2021 US and UK: The Comeback Kids Big Picture, UK Economics, Emerging Markets, US The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in... Read More...
January 18, 2021 Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations Global Economics, Asia FX, UK Economics, Emerging Markets, US Olivier Desbarres Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large... Read More...
October 8, 2020 Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime Big Picture, Global FX, UK Economics, US Olivier Desbarres Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical... Read More...
July 30, 2020 Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery UK Economics Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
June 26, 2020 United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future UK Economics Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by... Read More...
June 18, 2020 United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support UK Economics editorial Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
January 10, 2020 Bank of England’s dovish warning bells ring true Global FX, UK Economics Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen Bank of England dovishness should come as little surprise UK GDP growth was negligible over Q2-Q3 2019 – averaging only 0.04% qoq... Read More...
December 6, 2019 Sterling’s made its mind up, UK voters not quite Global FX, UK Economics, UK Politics GBP Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen Sterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in... Read More...
