Category: UK Economics

Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery

The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.Read the rest

United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future

Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth.Read the rest

United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support

Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going forward.Read the rest

Sterling’s made its mind up, UK voters not quite

Sterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in a world of depressed currency volatility.

Markets have seemingly taken comfort from the (modest) widening of the gap between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour party in opinion polls to about 10pp and YouGov predicting that Prime Minister Johnson would secure a material parliamentary majority at the 12th December general election.Read the rest