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The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.   This points to a very rapid recovery in domestic economic activity, albeit from a low base, and tallies with the surge in the UK composite PMI from 30.0 in May to 47.7 in June. There were greater opportunities to spend on goods as the lockdown was eased and the government continued to pump billions into the economy to support employed and se
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PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash

( 10 mins read ) Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%). The Renminbi’s steady

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Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

( 12 mins read ) Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant

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UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

( 12 mins read ) Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of

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Warnings about US economy and USD overblown

( 12 mins read ) The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required. The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1

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China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope

( 10 mins read ) Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in

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United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future

( 14 mins read ) Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via

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Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

( 17 mins read ) While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based

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Follow our contributors on Twitter

My conversation from yesterday with @GPS_UCSD's @UlrikeSchaede
about THE ICONOCLAST is now online!

https://youtu.be/Z3e2aY2yKXc

The Kishi-Abe dynasty continues: Kishi Nobuo's son Nobuchiyo, a reporter at Fuji TV, is leaving his job to become his father's secretary at MOD.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/576f547f3024b2b7a86b66dafa33bf12f77db0db

China's move to tweak its exchange rate is less about weakening the yuan, and more about the gradual liberalization of the currency, say some market strategists.
@keping https://on.wsj.com/3jyuJ48

Here I discuss the international role of the euro with @Aligarciaherrer https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/politics-not-economics-demands-stronger-role-for-euro/

¿Fue buena la licitación de hoy? Si, fue buena. Pero era totalmente esperable con las expectativas de devaluación por las nubes. ¿Resolvió algún problema de fondo? Ninguno. Se ganó algo de tiempo. Restan ver 2 cosas importantes: % sector público y % que viene del desarme leliqs

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