Argentina: Price Administration is the Name of the Game
Minister Guzmán’s orthodox turn in early December crashed with politics. Since Cristina Kirchner’s speech in La Plata, many things have changed in the government’s economic approach. Perhaps the most important is the arsenal of tools to fight inflation. Now everything seems to re… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]
Argentina: Deficit and inflation in 2021
The monthly survey of market expectations carried out by the Central Bank among 42 economic teams revealed that the median of the responses is 50% inflation for next year. If the most optimistic and pessimistic 10% are excluded from the sample, the range of responses varies bet… Become a member to read the rest […]
Comment: The importance of inflation expectations
Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For now, inflation expectatio… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon
It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pa… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Macro Series – Comment – Lowlife: the dynamics of rock bottom bond yields
After a near 40-year bull market, advanced-economy bond yields remain historically low. Inflation has also fallen to subdued, often uncomfortably depressed, levels. The persistent decline in long-term interest rates reflects mutually reinforcing secular forces. Some of t… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Macro Series – Comment – Overstretched: pushing the boundary of central bank policy
Conventional monetary policy is now all but exhausted in the major economies. Existing unconventional initiatives also appear to be subject to diminishing returns. Leaving the business cycle to its own devices is however not a viable public policy choice. The remaini… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down
Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months…. Become a member to read the rest of […]