Analysis – What to infer from inflation outliers
Price shocks, or ‘outliers,’ raise general inflation if they ‘infect’ core prices and wagesThis happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, on the occasions of the two big oil shocksHowever, it has not happened (in ‘advanced’ economies) since the mid-1990sCurrent conditions do not se… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
Inflation – Higher For Longer
Part 2: Housing Dynamics som-higher-for-longer-housing-Part-2-Housing … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Trimmed Means
The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices. [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Macro-series-Trimmed-Means-July-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Trimmed Means – July 202… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Inflation – Higher For Longer
SOM-Inflation-part-1-labor- … Become a member to read the rest of this article
NIGERIA: More of the same from the central bank
The furious official reaction to allegations of an opposition governor that ways-and-means funding of the federal budget by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) goes on unabated does little to dispel the assumption that this is still the case. The CBN would need to resume publishing… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Global Letter – Pan Am, the Boeing Stratocruiser, the Fed, and inflation
Pan Am and the Boeing Stratocruiser The following is a parable. Please bear with me. In 1956 my father was flying across the Pacific in a Pan American Airways Boeing Stratocruiser, 1 a propeller plane powered by four huge 28-cylinder 3,500 hp Pratt & Whitney r… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Focus: Money and Inflation
Money growth has surged in most economies, the result of aggressive quantitative easing.If money growth is a harbinger of inflation, that would be concerning.In high-inflation 1970s and 80s, money growth was believed inevitably to cause inflation.However, experience since 2000 d… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Normalization Means A “New Normal” Of Higher Rates
SOM Macro Commentary March 9th… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
The virus still drives G7 GDP, while the US and China record no significant inflation. Outcome Previous Comment China CPI (Jan; y-o-y) -0.3% 0.2% No signs of consumer price pressures China PPI (Jan; y-o-y) 0.3% … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter: Rising US inflation concerns
Markets are starting to fret: it is a close call, but we are slightly more sanguine. Inflation is now back on many minds. And this matters because, as go inflation expectations, so go bond yields, and thence asset prices, exposed leveraged entities, official interest… Become a member to read the rest of this article