Review | Inflation Expectations & Asset Returns
A review of the academic literature on formation of inflation expectations
US CPI | Team Harvard & Goldman win again
Jason Furman of Harvard notes erroneous Cleveland Fed nowcasting we previously mentioned.
US CPI | 4 scenarios & probability estimates
We consider 4 possible outcomes for the June (2023) CPI number, together with our estimated probabilities and expected market impact. Downside inflation surprised more likely.
US Jobs/Inflation | US-China cyberwars | Quantum supremacy
Is China or the US winning the race towards quantum supremacy?
MTC inflation | Debt ceiling hedges
We examine the performance of the debt ceiling hedges we proposed ahead of the X-date and how to manage them from here on.
Best papers on inflation | Blowhard Zervos
We review the best papers written on inflation over past year and unmask another Wall Street analyst who exudes confidence but lack quality.
US Economy | Useful Bernanke & Blanchard paper
A novel, yet simple and elegant, model explaining US inflation by two heavyweight economists—Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard
NFP | Where’s the US economic data pointing to?
Recent US economic data is undeniably strong. Investment outlooks are probably yet to reflect these developments.
Inflation | Yield curve | Iranian spy balloons
Yield curve dis-inverts and inflation expectations decline ahead of today’s CPI release.
Krugman | Inflation target of 2% or 3%
Is the US economy designed for inflation to sustainably run at 3%?