Argentina: Income Tax Populism
Last week, the government presented a bill to modify the income tax paid by individuals that is a step back from many angles. The central idea is that just over half of the salaried workers who today pay the tax stop doing so. Essentially it would reduce the universe of taxpayers… Become a member […]
Argentina: Never Ending Restrictions
Since November 2011, Argentina has lived with financial restrictions except for three and a half years, from the beginning of 2016 to September 2019. The perspective is that it will have many more years of exchange restrictions, at least during the entire government of Alberto Fe… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Argentina: The Tailwind and the Deficit
With the vaccination processes underway in most of the world, the general feeling is that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, although there is a way to go that will probably take much of 2021. The world grows at 5.5% in 2021 and the emerging markets even more. Against this b… Become […]
Argentina: Watch Out for the Summer!
Those who are “at-risk groups” will remember February 6, 1989: that day the Plan Primavera in times of José Luis Machinea and Juan Sourrouille blew up. Convertibility began in April 1991 and was the product of a difficult summer. There are more examples showing that in Argentina,… Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: What if There is No Agreement with the Fund?
For a long time, our baseline scenario has been that Argentina reaches an agreement with the International Monetary Fund around March or April. Today the chances that this agreement is delayed until 2022 or at least until the legislative elections of October have grown. There are… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Argentina: Price Administration is the Name of the Game
Minister Guzmán’s orthodox turn in early December crashed with politics. Since Cristina Kirchner’s speech in La Plata, many things have changed in the government’s economic approach. Perhaps the most important is the arsenal of tools to fight inflation. Now everything seems to re… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: Diluted stabilization plan
Last Friday Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa, Axel Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, among other leaders of the governing coalition, gathered in La Plata to rename a football stadium after Diego Maradona. In terms of Argentine politics, this is the closest thing to wha… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: Deficit and inflation in 2021
The monthly survey of market expectations carried out by the Central Bank among 42 economic teams revealed that the median of the responses is 50% inflation for next year. If the most optimistic and pessimistic 10% are excluded from the sample, the range of responses varies bet… Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: Recalculating – GDP Would Fall Less Than 11% in 2020
Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We do not expect September’s … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: Agreement Still Far Away, Busy Summer
The International Monetary Fund mission left Argentina last weekend. The official statement published on Friday by the Washington-based organization suggests that an agreement between the two parties is still distant. In its very particular language, it states that guidelines for… Become a member to read the rest of this article