ECUADOR: Unstoppable force (Lasso) meets immovable object (National Assembly)
President Guillermo Lasso’s so-called “mega-bill” of reforms faces a complex path in the National Assembly (AN). The government has been talking openly about its “plan B” for a public referendum if/when the reforms reach a dead end in the legislature. Lasso’s popularity co… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]
ECUADOR: Positive start for Lasso but challenges loom large
The early part of President Guillermo Lasso’s presidency was always going to revolve around his pledge to vaccinate 9mn people in his first 100 days in office – the so-called Plan 9/100. Five weeks after his inauguration, the target still looks ambitious, though new supply agreem… Become a member to read the rest of […]
ECUADOR: Lasso thwarts revival of left-leaning populism but going will be tough
Former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) suffered a resounding defeat yesterday, 11 April, as his proxy presidential candidate Andres Arauz lost to the conservative former banker Guillermo Lasso in a run-off vote. With 98% of votes counted, Lasso of the center-right Creating Op… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: A complex horizon for whoever wins presidential run-off
Campaigning officially ends tonight, 8 April, ahead of the 11 April presidential run-off vote. The vote comes down to a binary choice between populist leftism in the shape of Andres Arauz, and anti-Correismo, as represented by the conservative Guillermo Lasso. Polarization is acu… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: Signs of late Lasso rally may not be enough against Arauz
Andres Arauz remains the marginal favorite ahead of the 11 April presidential run-off vote though the conservative Guillermo Lasso appears to have gained ground. Voter fragmentation and indecision complicate the outlook, as do calls to spoil ballots. The vote pits Lasso… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: Electoral tussle drags on as IMF deal frays
Officially, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition – whose leader in the shadows is former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) – and Guillermo Lasso of the center-right Creating Opportunities (CREO) party will contest a run-off presidential vote on 11 April. … Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: Perez or Lasso – that is the question
With 97.85% of votes cast in the 7 February presidential election now counted, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition has won 32.16% of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie),… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
ECUADOR: Facing a binary choice
With exactly a month to go before the first round of the presidential election, our base-case is that an April run-off will be necessary; this would pit the center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso against the leftist Andres Arauz. The uniting of the Right means that Lasso… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
ECUADOR: Withdrawals favor Lasso but 2021 presidential field is crowded
Guillermo Lasso of the center-right Creating Opportunities (CREO) party has the early advantage ahead of the 2021 presidential elections. Former president Rafael Correa’s legal problems could well thwart his aspirations for a comeback as vice-president. Political fragmenta… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECUADOR: 2021 election maneuvering moves up a gear
Putative candidates are stepping up their preparations for the 2021 presidential elections, but the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. The campaign will take place against a backdrop of a deep recession, persistent fiscal imbalances, and debt stress. Electoral unce… Become a member to read the rest of this article