Category: Ecuador

ECUADOR: Facing a binary choice

  • With exactly a month to go before the first round of the presidential election, our base-case is that an April run-off will be necessary; this would pit the center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso against the leftist Andres Arauz.
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This week will see intensified negotiations as Argentina tries to avoid a ninth sovereign default. Beyond Argentina, the spread of Covid-19 in the region will dominate the week ahead even as some countries tentatively loosen restrictions; yesterday, 17 May, the number of confirmed cases in Latin America and the Caribbean reached 500,000. … Read the rest

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ECUADOR: 2021 election maneuvering moves up a gear

  • Putative candidates are stepping up their preparations for the 2021 presidential elections, but the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty.
  • The campaign will take place against a backdrop of a deep recession, persistent fiscal imbalances, and debt stress.
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ECUADOR: Government walks tightrope

President Lenin Moreno last night, 10 March, announced an emergency package of measures designed to boost government revenues by USD 2.25bn. Moreno cited the impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak together with the oil price drop as reasons for the package.… Read the rest