Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations
Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large US twin deficits a… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]
Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities
Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wron… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments. Only a handful of currencies appreciated by more… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Comment: Money talks
Monetary growth has accelerated, prompting inflation warnings from Monetarists The pick-up reflects extraordinary policy interventions in response to the pandemic Demand for money balances has risen too, although the surge appears to be waning There are also many reasons… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty
Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants […]
Comment: Forgive us our debts …
Total global debt has continued to burgeon in the ten years since the Financial Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic stands greatly to add to debt burdens. Much of the additional debt that has been incurred is unlikely to be repaid. Historically, ‘debt Jubilees’ played a key ro… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed to -2.6% yoy in Q1 from +3.0% yoy in […]
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP. Global GDP growth in Q1 was at its wea… Become a member […]
Update On Strategies For The Coronavirus World
Hi. I hope all of you and your families are well and have found something to binge-watch. Well, I was going to send this piece out a few days ago, but every time I was ready to send it, another academic study on the virus came out. I–given the geek I am– had to read […]
Emerging market central banks playing catch-up
Developed central banks in the past week have been falling over themselves to loosen monetary policy and secure the proper functioning of financial and credit markets. The Fed, RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and Norges Bank have delivered inter-meeting policy rate cuts o… Become a member to read the rest of this […]