Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations
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Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities
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How independently do financier think?
Yesterday, we released the results of our markets survey (see below). Typically, a respondent will compare his/her responses against those of the masses in order to identify potential pitfalls of group-think. Unfortunately, the top line figures are not as helpful with this process as one would like. So, we thought we would share a simple survey analysis to demonstrate how cognitive biases and group-thinking are […]
Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
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Comment: Money talks
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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty
Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants […]
Comment: Forgive us our debts …
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Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed to -2.6% yoy in Q1 from +3.0% yoy in […]
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
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Update On Strategies For The Coronavirus World
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