January 18, 2021 Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations Global Economics, Asia FX, UK Economics, Emerging Markets, US Olivier Desbarres Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large... Read More...
November 20, 2020 How independently do financier think? Polls, Global Economics, Others Yesterday, we released the results of our markets survey (see below). Typically, a respondent will compare his/her responses against those of the masses in order to identify potential pitfalls of group-think. Unfortunately, the top line figures are not as helpful with this process as one would like.…... Read More...
December 2, 2020 Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics, Emerging Markets editorial Olivier Desbarres Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly... Read More...
July 1, 2020 Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of... Read More...
July 13, 2020 Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
June 5, 2020 Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick Big Picture, Global Economics While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19... Read More...
July 8, 2020 Comment: Money talks Global Economics, Macro editorial Russell Jones Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
June 23, 2020 Comment: Forgive us our debts … Global Economics, Macro debt forgiveness, editorial Russell Jones Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
May 21, 2020 Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP Big Picture, Global Economics Global GDP Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen <audio class="amazon-ai-player" id="amazon-ai-player" preload="none" controls ... Read More...
April 1, 2020 Update On Strategies For The Coronavirus World Global Economics, Investment Strategies covid-19 Alan Brazil Press play to listen <audio class="amazon-ai-player" id="amazon-ai-player" preload="none" controls ... Read More...
