report March 31, 2020 Chart of the month – UK bank rate at a 326 year low – March 2020 The UK’s Bank Rate is at a 326-year low… … with possibly more easing to follow 1. More than ever, the world is in an era of historically-depressed interest rates. 2. UK Bank Rate has never been lower. − Followin... ... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report March 26, 2020 Technologies series – Immunotherapies – March 2020 Re-educating the immune system Harnessing our natural immunity to treat, and even cure, cancer. What they are Immunotherapies are a class of medical treatments that use the body’s own immune system to fight disease, typically forms of cancer. How... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report March 25, 2020 Macro Series – Postcard – Italy: a harbinger for Europe and perhaps beyond In the eye of the Covid-19 storm, early-stage signs are that the lockdown may be working. Italy being at the forefront of the epidemic in Europe, it may prove instructive to follow developments there more closely than usual. Italy’s... By Lavinia Santovetti, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report March 19, 2020 Macro Series – Comment – War footing? Not Really The fight against COVID-19 may be likened to a war: but in fiscal terms it is smaller. The spread of the COVID-19 virus is now dominating lives to the extent that at least two national leaders, President Macron of... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report March 16, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – The day after tomorrow The real challenge, for policy and more, will come after the virus recession is over. You wouldn’t choose to start from here. But the reality is that after a long, hesitant, and uneven upswing, the world economy is being... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report March 12, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – Easy Target The Bank of England has come under attack for cutting rates. This is unfair and misguided. Back to the bottom The Bank of England has followed the example of the Federal Reserve, and slashed its major policy rate by... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report March 11, 2020 Technologies series – Electronic skin – March 2020 An electronic clone of biological skin that stands to enrich biological, virtual, and robotic life. What it is Electronic skin (E-skin) mimics the aesthetics and simulations of natural biological skin.1 Made of multiple layers of thin, soft, flexible materials... By Preston Llewellyn, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report February 28, 2020 Macro Series – Postcard – Lessons from Liverpool Liverpool exemplifies a post-industrial syndrome that challenges many countries. The accent has gone. I have spent 50-odd years living elsewhere. But Liverpool is my birthplace and spiritual home. Much of my family still resides there. Its colourful, if latterly... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report February 26, 2020 Chart of the month – UK long run productivity growth has collapsed – February 2020 UK labour productivity growth has collapsed The economy’s recent productivity performance is the worst on record 1. The level of UK labour productivity has barely increased at all since the Global Financial Crisis. 2. Hence, producti... Become a member to... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report February 20, 2020 Global Letter – Climate change: let the numbers speak Below1 are the key numbers2 relating to climate change, and some fundamental implications Definitions and facts Main greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).3 Global warming potential (GWP): differs by gas. Indicative relati...... By John Llewellyn, Preston Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report February 18, 2020 Macro Series – Comment – Lowlife: the dynamics of rock bottom bond yields After a near 40-year bull market, advanced-economy bond yields remain historically low. Inflation has also fallen to subdued, often uncomfortably depressed, levels. The persistent decline in long-term interest rates reflects mutually reinforcing secular forces. Some of these inf... ... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report February 13, 2020 Macro Series – Postcard – Italy: more complicated than a tale of two regions In statistical terms Italy is country of variances, rather than of averages. Italy’s economy has scarcely grown since the beginning of the new century, and is yet to re-attain its pre-2008 level. But Italy’s economic problems extend beyond its... By Lavinia Santovetti, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report February 10, 2020 Macro Series – Focus – Degenerative condition: slowing potential growth Potential growth has been in long-term decline in the advanced economies. Demographic forces are likely to continue to put downward pressure on the capacity to grow. Near zero or negative overall potential growth would no doubt be unfamiliar and... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report February 3, 2020 Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – February 2020 Economic Risks ▪ The coronavirus stymying renewed cyclical momentum ▪ Growth rates remaining modest by historical standards ▪ Inflation edging higher, but staying uncomfortably low ▪ Hopes of a retreat in protectionism coming to nought ▪ Risky-asset returns falling... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report January 28, 2020 Chart of the month – Monetary policy in advanced economies – January 2020 Central bankers made a significant volte-face in 2019 … but they now retain limited latitude to respond to new negative shocks 1. Slower economic growth and sagging inflation prompted a broad shift towards monetary easing in 2019. The deceleration...... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report January 22, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – MENA: a tinderbox The Middle East, beset by fault-lines, is vulnerable to a crisis that would be hard to contain Temporary respite While the threat of war between the US and Iran may have subsided, at least for now, Washington has... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report January 20, 2020 Technologies series – Brain-Computer Interfaces – January 2020 Redefining our relationship between our brains and computers. “I know kung-fu” What it is Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) enable communication and control without movement, by means of direct input of a person’s neuronal signals into computer systems.1 BCIs can also... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report January 15, 2020 Macro Series – Comment – Overstretched: pushing the boundary of central bank policy Conventional monetary policy is now all but exhausted in the major economies. Existing unconventional initiatives also appear to be subject to diminishing returns. Leaving the business cycle to its own devices is however not a viable public policy choice.... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report January 9, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – Quantifying trade protectionism US protectionism stands to reduce US GDP by a percentage point. Or more. Concern about recent trade protectionism stems essentially from its reversing the previously-won gains from the progressive liberalisation of international trade since the Second World War.1... By John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report January 7, 2020 Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – January 2020 Economic Risks ▪Trade and geopolitical-related tensions mounting ▪Modest growth proves vulnerable to new shocks ▪The global investment shortfall deepens further ▪A lack of policy ammunition constrains monetary policy ▪Budgetary slippage persists but structural reform founders ... Become a... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
