No More Middle East Updates?
What happened to the Middle East updates they keep asking for?! We're not trying to sell ads here. The updates from two weeks ago still largely reflect where the current news cycle stands. The most recent information is more technical in nature and requires context to understand—subject to many caveats that can easily be misinterpreted. There are more interesting emerging topics. By the way, the politically correct term is “West Asia”.
Between covering the Middle East conflict, U.S. political polarization during an election year, and the sensitivities and decades-old tribalism within the military-industrial complex, it will be a miracle if we get through this period without things blowing up. At least when you carry too much risk into an economic data release, there's a payoff to match.
The good news is that it's still possible to discuss U.S. politics and decipher what's going on without having your head blown off just for asking basic questions. Iranian or Israeli politics, however, is a far more complex minefield to navigate. To make sense of the Middle East conflict, one must have a reasonable understanding of the domestic politics of each of the main actors involved. It is by far the most challenging topic, but also easier for differentiation.
John Thomas on US Election
Back to the US election… John Thomas predicted the early momentum in the polls for Kamal Harris would fizzle out and reverse. A view echoed by Tony Fabrizio—chief pollster for the Trump campaign.
And no, I'm personally not a fan of Trump. I'm only entitled to live, work, poke fun of Americans and pay taxes in the U.S.—the deadline for expats was yesterday—so we won't waste time on hypotheticals. For a centrist, the choice of candidates seems almost as bad as those in the recent Iranian presidential election. Just tell us who's the Supreme Leader and what he's thinking.
On that note… here's the latest from Republican strategist John Thomas and our partners at Nestpoint Group:
We can no longer say there's plenty of time left. With only 500 hours remaining, Harris must regain momentum.
Harris' schedule is lighter than Trump's.
Her public appearances typically begin at 4 p.m.
Harris has two main advantages: her field organization is much stronger, and her ad spend is nearly two-to-one compared to Trump's. However, this hasn’t been enough to help her surge ahead. Additionally, Biden and his team are actively working to overshadow her.
Harris' attacks on Trump’s mental acuity are a slippery slope and could backfire.
Trump is using “bro talk” on the podcast circuit to further resonate with male voters, and it is working.
Harris is going on Fox News in an attempt to shore up support among Black male voters. The trouble is, she’s not expanding the map.
John Thomas is a cofounder & Managing Partner at Nestpoint Group. He also serves as a communications and political strategists for the Republican party and Trump campaign.
