Russia-Ukraine
Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine has fallen to Russian troops. Meanwhile, the US Congress wastes more time deciding whether to pass an additional aid package for Ukraine, the Czech Republic casually ‘discovers' 800,000 munitions that the EU will send to the front line in the next few weeks. That's significant!
Ukraine is facing not only a shortage of armaments to sustain the current war effort but also a lack of manpower.
Israel-Hamas
The Saudi newspaper Elaph reports that Israeli security officials have information suggesting that the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has fled with some family members and a group of hostages across the border with Egypt through some tunnels. The article mentions that suspicions were first raised when an injured journalist in Gaza posted about receiving treatment in Qatar, despite his name not being on the list of those permitted to cross the Rafah border into Egypt.
An IDF spokesperson has refuted the claim. The story might be given slightly more credibility if the unnamed source in the report were a member of Saudi intelligence. Nonetheless, it is worth mentioning, even though the accuracy of the claim cannot be confirmed.
As Israeli troops have gradually withdrawn from northern Gaza over the past few weeks, Hamas combatants have launched an insurgency in and around Gaza City.
One side in this conflict will soon have to make significant concessions from its maximalist position. Based on the most recent developments and the current tide of events, it is more likely that Israel will be the one to do so. A prolonged insurgency campaign suits Hamas more than Israel, both politically and economically. The status quo is also unattainable for the US.
As several analysts said at the start of the war, Israel's stated military objectives were unachievable and poorly planned.
Here is part 3 of Alan Brazil‘s market outlook series:
SOM Macro
Part III: Positive Housing Fundamentals Like the 70s
