“In the Middle East, if you’re weak, you’re roadkill.”
-The lights are flashing bright red regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We anticipate significant negative news stories and developments over the next few days.
-Western intelligence reports about another round of strikes on Ukrainian territory using the Oreshnik missile may be exaggerated. The Russian army is making significant strategic gains on the Donetsk and Kursk fronts without needing to resort to such offensive weaponry.
-While the collapse of the Assad regime to the “DEI jihadis” (HTS) is being framed positively in Western media sources, we believe the medium-to-long-term outlook for the Middle East indicates heightened risks of further escalation ahead.
-The overwhelming evidence points to a long history of regional actors opposing Israel, with this opposition both broadening and escalating to new levels of extremism. It has evolved from secular Arab nationalists to Shiite theocrats in Iran, and now to well-organized Salafist and Takfiri movements on Israel's borders.
-There may be potentially positive news regarding a temporary ceasefire and hostage exchange between Hamas and Israel.
We’ll provide more updates on both conflicts shortly.
