What Happened Last Night?
The head of CENTCOM arrived in Tel Aviv yesterday morning. Phone calls were made to international counterparts, warning of imminent strikes. U.S. reconnaissance and refueling aircraft were airborne over Iraq and across the region. A NOTAM was issued to clear Iranian airspace until October 9th. Did someone get cold feet?
There is speculation that Israel might conduct its operations against Iran tonight. While the airspace above Iran and Iraq has been cleared until early tomorrow morning local time, military aircraft activity in the region is currently minimal. If it’s not already clear, the lives of everyone in this conflict, except for Israelis and Iranians, are treated as cannon fodder or “collateral damage.”
According to Israeli TV, the U.S. government has offered to “compensate” Israel with a new military aid package and diplomatic cover if it refrains from striking certain locations in Iran. This news can be interpreted in various ways. Presumably, there are not just incentives but also pressures involved. The situation is similar to early August, when Iran was dissuaded from retaliating against Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel's Strike Options
Striking Iran’s nuclear facilities not only presents operational challenges, as previously discussed, but also carries broader political ramifications for Israel as a nuclear-armed state that is not part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran has also stated that an attack on its oil production facilities would trigger retaliatory strikes against similar facilities in neighboring regions.
We believe that Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing capabilities remain the most likely targets for an Israeli strike, which would simultaneously weaken the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
What Happened On Tuesday?
Preliminary findings from open-source analysis using video footage and low-resolution satellite imagery reveal the damage caused by Iran’s strikes on Israel on Tuesday, which has now made its way into mainstream media reports. So far, investigations have focused on Nevatim Airbase, where Israel houses its most valuable aircraft and fighter jets. It is also believed to be one of the world’s most heavily protected airspaces.
What can we say? For two years, we’ve been told that Putin is suffering from Parkinson’s disease and losing the war in Ukraine, while the U.S. President has the mental reflexes of a 20-year-old. More recently, the phrase “Ukraine is operating a fluid defense” has become another way of saying the frontlines are collapsing.
We will have to wait a month for high-resolution commercial satellite imagery to be released. For the first 24 hours, Israel attempted to obscure low-resolution satellite imagery with “digital clouds” over its air bases, which were hit by Iranian ballistic missiles. This also bought the IDF time to clean up the area.
The Story of a B-35 Bomber Without a Runway to Land
Now that some time has passed, here’s a little story we heard from a reliable source on Tuesday while the strikes were ongoing:
After receiving a few hours’ notice of the planned strike by Iran, Israeli Air Force (IAF) aircraft were fueled and airborne—either as part of a defensive effort or to avoid being hit by incoming missiles. After takeoff, Nevatim Airbase was hit quite badly, and the runway was damaged, making it difficult for the aircraft to land. According to our source, there was a B-35 stealth bomber low on fuel which needed to land: “They have 20 minutes to find some bulldozers, clear the sandpiles, and repave the runway.” We don’t know what the contingency plan was or where the B-35 ended up landing—probably at one of the U.S. airbases in Jordan.
We’ll leave it to readers to judge the plausibility of this story.
Earlier in the week, we shared some video footage showing the the air defense interceptors around Nevatim Airbase were not firing as a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles hit the ground. Israeli air defenses were either depleted or—according to another theory—blinded after their radars were knocked out. The airspace around the Nevatim Airbase is considered one of the world's most protected.
If the success of military operations is measured according to the number of death and damage caused to civilian infrastructure, then Tuesday's operations may be described as “defeated and ineffective.”
What Else Is Happening?
The IAF continues to flatten buildings in Beirut and across Lebanon. The IDF has launched yet another operation in North Gaza to dismantle Al-Qassam Brigades, which have regrouped. However, the ground incursion into southern Lebanon is not going well for the IDF, as they have sustained dozens of casualties in the first few days. Bizarrely, some video footage of IDF evacuations has been posted online by Israeli sources.
Hezbollah fighters, with years of experience in guerrilla warfare tactics from Syria, operate under a decentralized command structure. There have also been several reports of Hezbollah crossing into Israel and attempting to kidnap IDF soldiers—efforts that were successfully repelled. Guerrilla warfare and kidnappings are areas where Hezbollah excels. The Dahiya Doctrine remains the Israeli playbook.
Oh yes, and that tremor in the desert was almost certainly a seismic event, not a nuclear test.
