Israel-South Africa ICJ Ruling
On Friday (tomorrow), the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is more likely than not to rule in favor of South Africa's request to end the IDF war in Gaza, in accordance with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution #2728 passed in late March. Ynet News reports that if the court accepts South Africa's request, the Palestinians will probably ask the UNSC to vote on a narrower resolution for the IDF to end its operation in Rafah, south Gaza. As such, the US is less likely to veto the resolution than an outright end to the war or ceasefire.
For some reason, the announcement made earlier this week by the International Criminal Court (ICC) that it requested arrest warrants against top Israeli and Hamas leaders is only now percolating through the US media. The New York Times reporter who specializes in Middle East conflicts and terrorist groups said she was “quite surprised” by the ICC's decision to go after the Israeli leaders. If so, she needs to quit her job as an investigative reporter and find a more suitable career.
Similar to the discussion on the binding nature of UNSC resolution #2728, there is little debate or uncertainty among international law scholars regarding the ICC jurisdiction over this case. A question even ChatGPT could resolve to give a definitive response. It is mostly about alternative facts and realities rather than legal interpretations.
China-Taiwan
The ongoing People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China military drills around the Taiwan Strait have sparked market rumors of a planned invasion of the island in June. Lately, rumors and speculation of this nature have become more prevalent. Unlike the buildup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began with Russian military exercises in April/May 2021 near the Ukraine border, the sources here are less reliable and knowledgeable on the subject. In general, we pay greater attention when former career military intelligence analysts put forward such claims than hedge fund traders scalping around Bund futures.
For now, we'll attenuate rumors of a June invasion of Taiwan by China. We can always be proven very wrong. With that said, the open-source analysis on the PLA military drills is also uncharacteristically muted.
Here is a thorough and insightful analysis by Philip Zelikow at the Hoover Institute related to China-Taiwan which recently came to our attention:
Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking
As non-subject matter experts (SMEs), we are unqualified to pass any definitive judgments on the paper. For example, the section where Zelikow covers WWII is not especially revelatory for a reader with moderate knowledge on the history. Whereas the parallels with the threat of a Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia during the 1950s are more interesting.
It's a very long read and there is a lot to unpack there. We are curious to hear some feedback from the political scientists in our audience, and regular China watchers.
Nvidia, the blue chip stock most exposed to Taiwan geopolitical risk, finished the day up nearly 10%. Ballistic missile-proof!
