“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”
Galeotti on Kremlin Cabinet Shakeup
Following our previous update, Mark Galeotti has kindly released a brief video commenting on the musical chairs inside the Kremlin to address our questions. He raises an interesting point towards the end about Nicolai Patrushev's son, Dmitry, who was recently promoted to deputy prime minister in addition to his existing role as the Minister for Agriculture.
What's Next for Patrushev Senior?
According to well-informed sources in Moscow, the next role Patrushev senior is offered may be a good indication of the direction Russian politics is heading.
It had completely slipped our mind that Russia recently held elections and that a cabinet reshuffle was to be expected. The fact that most Western media outlets, and a few so-called Russian political experts who charge high fees, continue to perpetuate a misleading narrative of turmoil within the Kremlin is perplexing.
False Narratives on Shoigu
The notion that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been offered a ‘soft landing' exit is incorrect, and anyone who has remotely followed Russian politics over the past three years would recognize this. It's fine when one is trying to sell newspapers and ads, but not geopolitical research.
CBR Independence & Money Supply
For the monetarists, a quick look at the monetary aggregates lends credence to the possibility that Kremlin officials are aware that standard monetary policy has reached the limits of its efficacy in taming inflation. Moreover, the government understands this and places a high priority on the independence of the Central Bank of Russia. They are willing to make the necessary adjustments to help maintain price stability in the economy. Folks in D.C. should take note.
However, it is important to mention that far more knowledgeable local experts than us say changes in money supply are not currently good indicators of inflation. Otherwise, it sounds good! We left it in for completeness.
In short, the shakeup at the Kremlin is a strategically smart move for Russia to further its war aims in Ukraine. Galeotti's opinion is broadly consistent with that of other experts on military affairs. As one analyst put it: “It's a reminder that Russia is neither 10 feet tall nor 4 feet short.”
Targeting Military Production Capacity
Based on numerous think-tank reports we have seen over the past several months, targeting Russia's military production capacity through sanctions is the only plausible containment measure short of direct military confrontation by NATO. Russia has far more nukes than the US and Europe combined. Also, probably more advanced ballistic missiles—although we cannot make definitive claims in this regard.
UN Revises Figures on Number of Women Dead in Gaza
The Israeli and US media are reporting that the UN has halved the number of women estimated to have died in Gaza from 40% to 20% out of the approximately 35,000 so far declared by the Hamas Health Ministry. It is generally agreed that the total figure of those deceased or missing is up to 10,000 higher than the official figures due to lack of equipment to recover bodies from beneath the rubble. The composition of the 35,000 deaths is more disputed than the total figure.
How many Hamas fighters has the IDF killed?
The revised headline figures are more consistent with those expected in a conflict where the majority of combatants are men. Assuming these figures are accurate, and that all excess male deaths are due to Hamas combatants:
—The UN adjusted figures imply the IDF has killed roughly 7,000-8,000 Hamas combatants. This is roughly half the number the IDF claims to have killed after 7 months into the war. And far from the 30,000-40,000 Hamas combatants estimated by Israeli intelligence at the start of the war.
—Accordingly, the ratio of Hamas fighters to civilians killed becomes closer to 6:1, instead of the nearly 1:1 ratio recently claimed by Bibi Netanyahu.
Another example of trying to score a quick victory point without thinking it through.
In short, Rafah invasion or not, Israel is nowhere close to defeating Hamas.
