“There are two things that are infinite, the universe and man's stupidity..... And I am not sure about the universe.”
Housekeeping note: We've received several inquiries over the past couple of weeks from institutional investors of varying natures. At present, we do not currently have an institutional product to offer, though some of our partners may on a bilateral basis. We curate not only sellers of content and data but also buyers.
Another day, another mass grave in Gaza
Another mass grave has been unearthed near the Al-Shifa hospital with approximately 50 bodies, bringing the total count to 7 locations. It's important to clarify that some of the mass graves were dug by the Hamas health ministry early in the Gaza war due to a lack of time and capacity to bury their deceased. Nevertheless, the preliminary report by the UN does not reflect well on Israel, and there is ample compelling evidence that has yet to make its way into the mainstream.
UN and International Law don't matter
A sizable proportion of people in Western countries deem international law, multilateral institutions, and soft power as overrated. They are also the people most likely to struggle living under tyrannical rule, lawlessness, and with less than 2000 calories a day.
It used to be said the ‘left coast' is dominated by liberal elites…
A worse deal for Israel
The Times of Israel published an interesting op-ed laying out the unfavorable terms (for Israel) of the latest ceasefire proposal agreed upon between Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and CIA Director Bill Burns over the weekend where the Israeli negotiators failed to show up. The Saudi's also leveraging a stronger negotiating position.
In light of the fact that many key details in the ceasefire proposals have not been made public, we are reluctant to draw any definitive conclusions. However, based on publicly available information, each subsequent draft ceasefire proposal since November 2023 has been less favorable to Israel. Welcome to the Middle East where there is a long history of political leaders turning down peace settlement agreements, only to be later presented with worse alternatives.
The Istanbul peace accord between Russia and Ukraine in April/May 2022 now seems like a good deal.
Busy Bees in the Axis of Resistance
Elsewhere in the Middle East, the theocrats in Iran have been busy bolstering their proxy forces in the region. Meanwhile, there are early indications that nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US will resume.
Hamas' calculus is unlikely to have many contingencies on US policies and actions towards Israel but is more likely to factor in those by its regional allies.
Israel is still under Martial Law
The public discourse and analysis within the Israeli mainstream media focus almost entirely on domestic political affairs and achieving satisfactory outcomes, with little consideration for the demands and wishes of the other side. This ethos works when your side has total control of the situation. However, at some point, expectations and reality must converge.
Here's a local Israeli podcast (in English) in which the IDF is portrayed as having executed a flawless operation in Gaza, with all other issues attributed to Netanyahu. Civilian casualties in Gaza are deemed to be of zero importance, and US support for IDF operations would supposedly be limitless… if not for Netanyahu. The basic principles of hostage negotiations do not seem to apply here. The punchline comes at the end when the podcast hosts run through a list of challenges on the horizon for Israel's negotiating position.
Israel is still under martial law, so unfortunately, it prevents the many sensible moderate voices from within being heard. And honestly, there are plenty.
Israel Economy
Bezalel Smotrich has recently been focusing more on his day job as Israel's Finance Minister as consumer inflation has back ticked up…
Right now, the Israeli economy is the only thing certain to get ‘amaleked' the longer this war continues…
It's not clear when the preliminary Q1 2024 GDP data will be released, but it should be pretty soon. There isn't much reliable information on the Israeli economy in the public sphere. Official forecasts by intergovernmental agencies such as the OECD and IMF need revising.
Israeli Shekel
The Israeli Shekel (ILS) has been pretty stable and resilient lately…
We have presented a rather superficial snapshot/overview of the current state of Israel's economy. However, further disruptions to shipments in and out of Israel are almost certain to adversely add to supply pressures on the economy.
