“Your enemies always get strong on what you leave behind. ”
— Mario Puzo, The Godfather
I need to watch more movies. Taking all of one's life lessons from The Godfather and Scarface is not healthy.
Gaza Mass Graves
The story of the mass graves uncovered in Gaza is gaining momentum in Western media, encompassing both left-wing and right-wing outlets. In the past 2-3 weeks, there have been reports circulating in open sources of IDF soldiers massacring patients and medical staff at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, and the Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Yunis, before withdrawing. It began around the time Israel struck the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, shifting the focus away from Gaza.
A consistent pattern of behavior by the IDF
CNN is awaiting a response from the IDF regarding the mass graves ‘situation'. They were forced to come clean the last time CNN presented video evidence of two Palestinian civilian men murdered by IDF soldiers, their bodies buried under rubble with a bulldozer. Unfortunately, the international press has been barred from entering Gaza since the start of the war. When the New York Post starts to cover this story, it is a sign that US policy towards Israel has officially changed.
This is just one of several incidents that will no doubt be used in the ICJ genocide case against Israel, expected to make a ruling sometime in the next 15 years. We're reasonably confident that the IDF had a part in these massacres to risk challenges and threats from those with countervailing narratives. Our paying customers are smart and not fickle.
What does a massacre mean for capitalism?
For now, Iran is unlikely to do much that will distract attention from this story. The bulls may interpret it as an opportunity to buy the dip, while the bears have opposing interpretations. My personal bias, though largely inconsequential, veers towards a continuation of a Big Tech-led local correction in US equities. There has already been a significant pullback from recent peaks in stock prices. It's just a tactical view rather than a fundamental change to a longer-term outlook.
Weak democratic leaders vs. Strong authoritarians
The cognitive dissonance on display throughout the Gaza conflict is truly remarkable. Israel's adversaries have fully exploited it. For our purposes, we're mostly concerned with how it has imposed constraints and influenced decisions, on and off the battlefield. The aftermath of the failed Ukraine counteroffensive, and the subsequently misguided narratives perpetuated by US and European governments, is a perfect example.
Regardless of personal views and preferences, we must be clear-eyed about the facts and realities on the ground to make better decisions. As a former boss would say, we must avoid falling beholden to yesterday's P&L for the actions we take today.
Sadly, we're on a dangerous path with a severe deficit of strong leadership in the West to correct course. There are too many competing agendas, and everyone wants their personal interests to receive an exemption.
Is there room to add two more to the ever growing list of US strategic defeats around the world in the past two decades.