“Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media.”
Based on the empirical evidence in front of us, Chomsky is right, the key difference is summed up below by Idi Amin.
Israel horse trading strikes against Iran for Rafah incursion
According to several local Arab and Israeli media reports, Israel has agreed not to launch counter-retaliate strikes against Iran in exchange for the US approving its operation into Rafah. Qatar has also threatened to pull out of its role as a go-between in hostage negotiations, suggesting there is probably a strong element of truth to the reports.
Rafah, the linchpin of IDF operations
There have also been reports that the IDF was very close to striking back on Sunday immediately following the attacks, and again on Monday, but reconsidered. Israel believes the Hamas leaders and hostages are hiding in Rafah. This is very likely to be the case. At the same time, making Rafah the linchpin of IDF plans, and Israel's ability to conduct the operation, is also a convenient cover story should the Gaza war fail. Later, they could claim they could have succeeded in Gaza against Hamas had the Americans not stopped them from going into Rafah.
Hamas still in control of Gaza
The narrative that the last remaining 4 out of 19 Hamas battalions are in Rafah, and that the rest have been dismantled, is almost certainly a false narrative that has been perpetuated in Western media. It goes against all the evidence emerging from open sources, including well-documented cases, such as multiple return visits to locations already deemed to have been secured by the IDF. When there are fewer than 1000 IDF soldiers in Gaza guarding a north-south divide, Hamas militants are free to roam around the southern half of Gaza.
Israeli intel still better than politicians
The surprise attacks of October 7 should raise caution and doubts over Israeli intelligence on Hamas. Despite this, Israeli intelligence risk assessments are likely to be more accurate and sensible than its political leaders.
Hamas rejected temporary truce offers, no sign of pressure
Once again, if Hamas leadership felt it had its back to the wall, it would have accepted the temporary ceasefire deal on the table. Like Hamas, the IDF is also likely to be less than forthcoming about the true extent of its non-reservist casualties in Gaza. At present, an IDF incursion into Rafah, after Passover, and a renewed round of sanctions on Iran are the most likely courses of action. Let's call it 65% likely for the former, and 99% for the latter. Innocent, uninvolved people, both inside and outside Iran (Palestinians), are taking a disproportionate burden of the punishment pattern since the founding of the theocratic regime. i.e., Back to business as usual with the escalatory threshold level set higher.
Efficacy of military blockades and sanctions
For context, the empirical evidence on the efficacy of sanctions is rather mixed. In the case of Iran and North Korea, it creates unfair competition and opportunities for various branches of government to tax the local population. In terms of military blockades and collective punishment as a tool to force change due to domestic pressure, the historical precedents are overwhelmingly against it. If anything, it has been shown to strengthen support for the government when the nation is under siege. So far, there is no evidence to suggest Hamas is any less popular in Gaza than before October 7.
Iranian Rial
Side note: A brief word of caution when looking at the Iranian Rial (IRR) exchange rates. Like Argentina, these are the official rates set by the government which are kept artificially strong—only available to the privileged few in, or close to, the government. In the past, local wealthy Iranians with business interests were the first to get money out of the country ahead of a fresh round of sanctions.
Will Israel strike back at Iran?
As for the question everyone wants answered: whether or not Israel will conduct direct strikes on Iranian territories in the next month? That's like asking whether Arafat or Barak will be the first to walk through the door at Camp David. As of yet, we haven't seen any new compelling analysis for either outcome. As previously discussed, we're reasonably confident that the recent direct attack launched on Israel by Iran was well choreographed and effective at sending a message which military intelligence analysts understood. It exposed the split interests of the US and Israel in the region.
Final a smart move by Israel
To conclude, by forgoing a counter-retaliatory strike against Iran in return for permission to enter Rafah might be the first instance since the start of the Gaza war that Israel has played its cards strategically and smartly. Let's qualify that statement by limiting it to information in the public domain, since we do not know much about maneuvers behind the scenes.
If the end result is taking out the 3 top IRGC commanders orchestrating the Axis of Resistance operations and getting a pass to enter Rafah, having spent a bit over a billion dollars, Israel can credibly claim a victory in this episode.
