Good editorial skills are hard to replicate with algorithms
Today, there is an abundance of high-quality content in the open-source domain for those who are able to find and identify it. Modern-day open-source tools also enable us to systematically collate multiple sources of text-based content to produce summary reports at scales beyond the capabilities of humans.
We are still very far from replicating high-quality editorial skill; neither is it our primary focus. Otherwise, we could simply take several years of FT archived articles, together with Roula Khalaf’s editorial picks, as inputs to train a neural network and automate the process. If one truly understands the underlying principles in machine learning, they would also not spend too much on the exercise.
Russia-Ukraine strategy
Gideon Rachman’s recent podcast interview with Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London is the best summary of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Rachman | Is the balance tilting towards Russia in Ukraine?
Financial Times (33 mins)
It covers almost everything we’ve collected from open-source reports, as well as potential options for Ukraine. Perhaps the only issue not discussed is the compatibility of the Russian economy reorientation towards a war footing with a truce agreement—the key weakness in our argument for a ceasefire before the next US Presidential Election in 2024.
As Watling mentions, at this stage, there is little incentive for Russia to agree to a ceasefire without extracting significant concessions from Ukraine and the West.
Key highlights
—It is misleading to think about a stalemate in terms of territorial exchanges but the ability to sustain a position.
—The Ukrainian Army needs to reorientate its strategy and consolidate its position to sustain the war effort. We may interpret this as ceding territories to Russia in the short term. Either way, the post-war Russian military-industrial complex will be significantly larger and open to exports.
—In contrast, NATO members have been too slow at replenishing and stockpiling arms.
—Ukraine stands a better chance of mounting a successful defense if the story is taken out of the media spotlight. Thus far, Zelensky has been under pressure to show continuous progress to secure the next round of funding from his backers.
It will be interesting to see if, or how, the Russia-Ukraine communication strategy evolves in the US and Europe as an indication of their commitment to sustain the war effort. The status quo is doomed to fail for Ukraine.
Critics of Biden have drawn attention to the early days of the war in which they claim Zelensky was encouraged by former UK PM Johnson to turn down a peace deal proposed by Russia where, instead, he was offered unwavering support from the West. Putin’s gambit from the outset that the west eventually loses interest in Ukraine. Based on the present evidence, it’s difficult to argue that he was wrong.
Democracy and International Relations
To take a step back, as it relates to Israel-Hamas or Russia-Ukraine, most of the current international challenges the US faces are encapsulated in recent books by Martin Wolf and Sir Paul Tucker—covered in our past updates. Namely, a pragmatic approach to preserving Western preeminence in an increasingly multi-polar world. Unfortunately, some people are determined to repeat past mistakes with less effective tools and levers, to reenact the last days of Rome.
To date, Tucker’s book Global Discord (2022) lays out the most realistic framework to preserve Western hegemony in a multi-polar world. The central theme of his book is a shift in philosophies from Immanuel Kant, Thomas Hobbs, and Hugo Grotius, which dominate international relations, towards that of David Hume. Unfortunately, sensible people offering pragmatic solutions are unelectable these days…. and that’s the main theme of Martin Wolf’s book: The Crisis of Democractic Capitalism.
It boils down to whether post-WWII institutions, such as the UN, IMF, and World Bank, should continue to be undermined to the point of irrelevance by their primary architects or reformed towards broader plurality with less emphasis on values that are subjective.
At present, not only do some nations with shrinking economic status hold too much power at the UN, but there's too much cherry picking of rules and resolutions when it suits the short-term interests of certain actors.
