Mainstream media wake up to their complicity
A few mainstream media outlets are acting like they just woken up to realize they've been complicit in donkey porn over the past few days. Well, what did you think was going to happen? Hee haw!
Both sides are equally bad at spreading disinformation
It's been an extraordinary disinformation campaign in the cyber domain, one that's hard to forget. Even the open-source intelligence community, known for its commitment to truth, seems to have been infiltrated by propagandists or analysts who mentally off balance. Just imagine what might happen as AI technology becomes more sophisticated.
We've been trying to keep track of these events as accurately as possible. Typically, it takes several days for fact-checking organizations and open-source researchers to determine the most likely course of uncertain events. Currently, the Israeli side keeps releasing videos footage of rockets and explosions, almost like throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. This might be an attempt to control the information space while investigations continue, perhaps even hoping that open-source analysts will do the work for them. It's best not to jump to premature conclusions at this stage.
The Hamas information campaign strategy was probably not aimed at a Western audience but at its regional Arab neighbors for whom the Palestinian cause is close to their hearts. It's reminiscent of the way anti-Trump people would react every time he tweeted something outrageous. While newspapers gained more subscriptions thanks to the “Trump bump”, they failed to sway many voters.
Trump haters were the ones unwittingly keeping him relevant to the news cycle… supposedly intellectual and progressive types.
Unfortunately, the IDF made several unforced errors in their communications along the way: they lied about things that are easy to verify. The most serious allegation so far, which was proven to have been a lie beyond a reasonable doubt, was their categorical denial of using whitephosphorus munitions. There are a couple of other instances that will not be mentioned out of respect for the families of the victims of last Saturday's tragedy. Minor embellishments made today to incite the public will come back to haunt you tomorrow.
WSJ fake news on Iran
We raised concerns about a Wall Street Journal article published on October 8, 2023, which claimed to have evidence that Iran ordered and orchestrated the attacks by Hamas on Israel. However, this story has been debunked by several sources, and it has come to light that one of the authors, Summer Said, was fired by her previous employer for “making up stories,” as her former boss put it. If you're going to sell your integrity, at least get a good price for it.
To be clear, debunking this story neither proves or disproves Iran's involvement, but it certainly makes potential claims in the future less credible. These are unforced errors; the urge to score a quick cheap point in the moment, even if it turns out to be costly in the future.
Arab world media has set the narrative
Most of the Arab world's press has already attributed blame to Israel for causing the maximum possible number of civilian deaths (500) in the missile strike on the Gaza hospital. Ultimately, it is the only echo chamber that matters, and it is now impossible to prove otherwise, regardless of the facts.
In financial markets, when people keep repeating mistakes it's another opportunity to take their money. Unfortunately, these mistakes have far more serious consequences.
Our open-source Israel-Hamas updates will be available in front of our paywall.
It's daytime in Gaza, and the images are pouring in now. The OSINT analysts have established a good workflow, so we won't break their momentum with our pedestrian questions. Their main focus in the analysis is on studying images of the wreckage, rather than relying on hearsay and ad-hoc audio files from unreliable sources.
It's still too early to determine who was responsible for the missile strike on the Gaza hospital. However, based on preliminary analysis, I'm leaning 60/40 towards this being an accident caused by Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Please note that this is my personal opinion, and others are free to disagree. But, please lets keep it factual and scientific.
There is a significant inconsistency between the reported 500 deaths and the missile capabilities of PIJ or Hamas. As they say, sunlight is the best disinfectant.
On a separate note, Iran has reportedly stated that an IDF incursion into Gaza is a red line not to be crossed. While Israel's Iron Dome may withstand 5,000 Hamas missiles, it is likely that Hezbollah's 150,000 rockets would overwhelm the system. The newly launched laser Iron Dome is still in early release beta mode and is not a technology that Israel would want to rely on.
Perhaps everyone should consider moving a few miles south. We'll keep you informed if there are any significant updates.
Here is an image of the most probable point of impact:
According to the OSINT analysts, more likely a Fajr-3 or Fajr-5 rocket. Please don't ask me the details of those missiles. I'm that guy who gets a free ground thrown in at a clay pigeon shooting event because the instructor feels bad for him for missing so many shots.
It is also highly likely the number of reported fatalities will be revised down by x2 to x10. The OSINT analysis is independent of IDF reports earlier this morning.
The investigation is ongoing. We thought we should share these early findings to help lower the temperature. Nevertheless, still a terrible tragedy.